July 22. This
blog will appear counterintuitive. This
week Britain and Germany announced they would jointly construct a new deep
strike missile to counter the threat from Russia. This agreement is more than simply another multilateral
defence industrial project. It marks the
creation of two new pillars of Europe’s future defence power – the Royal Navy
and the Heer, the German Army.
History is
full of ironies. For almost a century
the Royal Navy and the Prussian and then German Army were the two great
instruments of military power in Europe. For all the sacrifice on the Western
Front the First World War was ultimately a struggle between the German Army’s offensive
power on and the Royal Navy’s blockading power at sea. The Second World War saw the Royal Navy act
as Britain’s ultimate shield against the Wehrmacht, the guarantor of Britain’s
survival and then the vehicle to deliver land power back to Europe. Remember, of the 1219 ships at D-Day some 80%
were British!
It might
seem strange to suggest the Royal Navy will be the hub of anything right now
with most of its ships and submarines either worn out, broken down, or in dry
dock undergoing repairs. Ridiculous
though this situation is the reality is that once all the repairs are complete
the Royal Navy will once again become the most potent regional-strategic
maritime-amphibious European force. Type
45 destroyers will effectively emerge as new ships, the excellent Astute-class nuclear
hunter killer submarines will be at the forefront of countering Russian
submarines in the North Atlantic, and the new Type 26 and Type 31 frigates
under construction will create a powerful hybrid hub force designed to act as a
power projector and innovation platform.
Last week the British and Dutch also announced an agreement to build 8
new amphibious assault ships to be built in the UK. Signs are the new Burnham government is finally
serious about defence, unlike Starmer. Starmer’s
deceit on defence was revealed when on his last day in power he increased the
foreign aid budget by £11 billion, the very money needed for defence!
Given the
state of the Bundeswehr it might seem equally counterintuitive to suggest that
Germany will once again become Europe’s greatest land power. And yet that is
precisely what is happening. Berlin will spend some €180 billion on a new army
by 2041 transforming the Heer into the core of future US-lite NATO European
deterrence and defence, By 2035 the Germany Army will be the world’s fourth
largest!
The twin reasons
for this new alliance of old enemies are military geography and geopolitical
change. The military geography is shaped
by Russia. With Finland and Sweden now
NATO members Europe’s dangerously contested space runs from the Arctic to the
Black Sea. Geopolitical change is driven
by US overstretch. I am currently finishing a new book, Future War in the
Pacific (with Generals Allen, Hodges and Ryan) and it is clear to me that
the rise of China is such that the Americans will simply be unable to maintain
the old security guarantee to Europe.
Power
shapes structure. The great unsaid truth inside NATO is that the future of the
Alliance will be coalitions built on a new division of labour focussed on a renewed
and increasingly autonomous European pillar.
In the current strategic and economic context it is pure pretence to suggest
that the British Army will defend NATO’s Eastern Flank in strength when it is
clear a German-led coalition of Poland and others will be responsible for that. It is equally pretentious to suggest that Germans,
Poles and others facing Russia should also have to defend the enormous space that
is the North Atlantic. Earlier this
year, General John Allen, Jim Townsend and I published “Super JEF” on the
future of the Joint Expeditionary Force. The ‘JEF’ is a ten-nation northern
Europe strategic force designed to conduct advanced maritime-amphibious manoeuvre
operations on an arc from Greenland to Norway and beyond which was created by
my dear friend, Field Marshal Lord Richards.
France? The French are all too aware of this shift in
German strategy, which is why they are playing the nuclear card hard and with
it the idea of an extended European nuclear deterrent. Paris believes it is losing influence not
just in Berlin, but also Washington. This is also why Paris will seek to
re-build new strategic partnerships with both Berlin and London, as much to constrain
them as enable them. Once Macron has
gone in April next year expect a profound shift in French policy and an end to
a decade of France seeking to punish Britain for leaving the EU. Brexit is yesterday’s strategically irrelevant
debate.
As threat grows
and the defence of Europe becomes ever more important the centre of gravity of European
power will shift away from the EU and back to a radically re-structured NATO. The twin pillars of this new reality will be a
rebuilt Royal Navy and a powerful new Germany Army upon which Europe’s future
multidomain forces will be built able to operate across air, sea, land, space,
cyber, information and knowledge in the coming age of AI hyperwar.
Power does
indeed shape structure, but it is threat that ultimately drives power. Now we need a plan!
Julian
Lindley-French
