Trakai, Lithuania. 14
January. The Snow Meeting. Trakai Castle sits firm and strong on its
island stronghold in the midst of a snowbound, frozen lake. Built in the fourteenth
century the castle protected the Grand Duchy of Lithuania from attacks by the Teutonic
Knights. As we looked upon Europe’s past
an array of prime ministers, foreign ministers and ambassadors from across the
western world considered Europe’s future.
This intense, small, annual meeting is a gem in the calendar and so
different in tone from many ego-fests.
It is also one of those moments in a year when I really speak truth unto
power in my role as strategic court jester.
In Lithuania both the European Union and NATO make sense. Some 190 kilometres from the Russian border
Moscow is always present. In the
1960s then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev once cited the restoration of Trakai
Castle as an example of what he called the ‘nationalism’ that he believed
threatened the then-Soviet Union. Today, we
would call such ‘nationalism’ political liberty; the right of nation-states to
self-govern, a theme that ran throughout the conference.
Two big geopolitical pictures
of note were painted, one understood, the other not. Russia is ever looking to exploit weakness
and irresolution in the West even if in reality the only stable border Russia
has in the one a short distance from here.
With the Eurozone crisis having now effectively killed off any prospect
of EU enlargement to the likes of Belarus or Ukraine and with little to offer
as incentives for political reform therein, the Kremlin has offered an
alternative Eurasian Union with Moscow firmly embedded at its centre. This was clearly understood by all present but
there was little that could be done other than to let the Russians screw it up
in their own inimitable fashion.
The second big
geopolitical picture concerned the consequences of crisis-driven, Germany-led, Brussels Centre managed deeper economic and political integration in the Eurozone and
Britain’s reaction to it. On the eve of
the biggest shift ever in the balance of power between the EU state and Brussels
Centre it is clear from this meeting that no-one will support Cameron’s
objective of repatriating powers from Brussels. Indeed, there is no mood to compensate Britain for its coming downgrading by the Eurozone, referendum or no
referendum. The Germans know full well
that the British political Left (including the Liberal Democrats) are willing
to sacrifice any amount of Britain’s political liberty to keep Berlin and
Brussels smiling on them, whatever the views of the British people. Thus, Germany has no need to give any ground
whatsoever to Britain and can drive on regardless now that it has Washington’s
backing.
What I was shocked by
was the level to which the European elite as a whole have convinced themselves
that what is about to happen is a good thing and that somehow Britain gets a
good deal. One very senior person quoted
figures about how much Britain benefits from the EU that were spectacularly
wrong. On 22 January Cameron
will offer the British people a 2015 sort-of referendum on the EU. If he is still in power (big if) he will then
go to Brussels with his demands and promptly be told to “Brussels Off”. At that point the reality of Euro-integration
will be apparent to all and London will face a choice – sign up to Germany’s
Europe or try and quit.
The Eurasian Union is
already a busted flush, whilst the future EU will simply not work and
whatever the pressure or propaganda Britain must stand firm and continue to
resist. Rather than force the
recalcitrant into a structure they can never accept, will never work and which affords
all sorts of dangers to democratic oversight of over-mighty power work should
rather begin on an entirely new EU. That
was the essential point made by George Osborne, the British finance minister,
in an 11 January interview with German newspaper Die Welt.
In my opening remarks
to the conference I warned about a weak Europe playing bad chess whilst the
rest of the world plays stud poker. Here
in Lithuania Realpolitik is ever present and unless Europeans relearn
the rules of geopolitics the new balance of power that
emerges from it will be cast utterly at Europe's expense. If ‘Europe’ is to make sense the real challenge is a Europe that can compete effectively across all economic and strategic domains and which is seen as legitimate and democratic by all its peoples. Surely, this is an agenda that can unite Germans, Britons, Swedes and most other Europeans?
Perhaps the most
poignant, painful lesson for this life-long Atlanticist from the meeting was the
abandonment of Britain by an Obama administration contemptuous of Britain. The Special Relationship is finally dead;
long-live the New Special Relationship…America and Germany.
Of course, none of this
was confronted head-on. Too much snow.
Julian Lindley-French, Director, Europa Analytica
