Alphen, Netherlands. 15
April. Former German Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder once said, “They have it wrong if they ask if Schroeder favours
Britain over France or France over Britain.
Schroeder favours Germany”.
Watching David Cameron with family enjoying a German weekend break with
Angela Merkel one could be forgiven for thinking all is well in the
British-German relationship. And yet for
all the well-publicised frictions it is equally clear that Cameron and Merkel
get on. It is also clear that the two
countries need and will need each other.
Is this the beginning of a British-German axis?
There is after all much
to unite Britain and Germany. According
to the CIA World Factbook (it must be true then) Britain and Germany are the
two biggest EU countries with the two largest economies by purchasing power
parity. Germany is Europe’s economic leader
whilst Britain remains (just) Europe’s military leader. The two countries also share a surprisingly
close strategic relationship on a whole raft of issues not least the two most pressing; the lack of fiscal resources and the need for Europe to
become competitive.
Furthermore, Cameron
and Merkel are natural political allies.
They are both moderate conservatives committed to the control of public
spending through strong austerity programmes which is rejected by France and
many other EU countries. Merkel has a
strong sense of history and respects the role played by Britain in both World
War Two and the Cold War. Indeed, she
believes fervently that EU influence and legitimacy without Britain would be
dangerously weakened.
The weekend’s photo
opportunities also sent a strong political message to France’s President Hollande
that Berlin has options. The Franco-German
axis long the core pillar of the European project is not what it was. Perhaps in the week Margaret Thatcher died Cameron
and Merkel were also sending a message about the importance of personal
chemistry between leaders implicitly recalling the Reagan-Thatcher years.
Berlin also seems to
have grasped another reality missed by many commentators. However it is dressed up come the German
elections in September if Merkel is to save the Euro thereafter some form of
debt mutualisation will be necessary.
This could cost Germany over time some 10% of its GDP if France goes over
the edge of the fiscal-debt cliff where it is headed. Equally, for all its current travails Britain
does not face the growth-destroying consequences of the coming decade of
Eurozone debt mutualisation/restructuring and can and is competitively
devaluing the pound.
That’s the good news;
here’s the euro-realism. There was a
paradox in the Cameron-Merkel speak that emerged from the weekend that also
highlights the very deep structural divisions between Britain and Germany over
Europe. Yes they both talked of
reforming the EU and yes both suggested there would be need for treaty
change. However, what Cameron seeks is the
partial deconstruction of the EU. He is particularly keen to put the European
Commission back in a box in which its ‘competences’ are both defined and
finite. Merkel, on the other hand, is
desperate to avoid any suggestion (as some are implying) that the EU is fast becoming
the “Fourth Reich”. She thus needs
Brussels, and in particular the Commission, to legitimise much-needed German
leadership and thus wants more ‘Europe’ not less. In other words, Cameron and Merkel may appear
to agree but in fact are fundamentally opposed on the key issue of more or less
Europe. This is something which will become
all too apparent in the year ahead and which will test the Cameron-Merkel
relationship sorely.
Cameron said last week that
the support of the British people for the EU is “wafer thin”. He was being polite. The moment Merkel moves to deepen integration
the bottom is likely to fall out of pro-EU arguments in a Britain that already
suffers a huge trade deficit with the EU, even as it enjoys a trade surplus
with the rest of the world.
Therefore, in the
coming test it is vital that Berlin and London somehow find projects on which to work
closely together. Critically, they must emphasise
those areas of shared and pragmatic NATIONAL interest both in Europe and the
wider world. That will take
confidence-building in each other, which was after all the purpose of this
weekend’s visit. What can Britain do now
to reciprocate? Cameron must come out
unequivocally against growing anti-German sentiment in Europe. Attack Berlin for policy mistakes by all
means (that is democracy) but any parallel drawn between today’s Germany and
the Nazis is offensive and must be confronted.
Why Britain? A senior German once told me that the only
ordinary state-to-state relationship Germany enjoys with any European state is
that with Britain. Every other relationship
still somehow suffers from guilt on one side and fear on the other. With Britain it was different, he said, “...because
we bombed you and you bombed us!”
So, no British-German
axis but Britain and Germany will need each other.
Julian Lindley-French
