Riga, Latvia. The Riga
Conference is a highlight in my annual calendar and an antidote to the eternal
self-obsessed ‘westerneuropeanitis’ which passes for strategy in Europe these
days. Sharing a platform with the
Belgian, British and Latvian defence ministers I fulfilled my now traditional
role as Europe’s strategic hooligan.
Dangerously I also sent my first tweet – Yorkshire finally enters the
twenty-first century! My plea was simple
and heartfelt - do not confuse the defence of Europe with the deepening of the
EU. If the former has to wait for the latter
it will die of political old age.
The final panel of the
conference did what the European elite loves most –
talked about itself. President Ilves of
Estonia was joined by Europe’s two most impressive foreign ministers – Sweden’s
Carl Bildt and Poland’s Radek Sikorski to consider the strategic outlook of the
EU. A more oxymoronic session for a conference one could not imagine as Europe
these days rarely looks out and does not do strategy. And yet it must!
The brilliant Celeste
Wallander the token American on the panel tried valiantly to intrude on Europe’s private grief
but she was far too optimistic. And to
be fair to her fellow luminaries they are the most real world of all European
leaders these days. Indeed, the idea
that ‘new Europe’ should hold ‘old Europe’ to account was refreshing, depressing
and ironic (when will 'new' Europe simply become Europe). I say ironic because in a few days the brand new
HMS Daring will visit Riga, Britain’s and one of the world’s most advanced
warships. This is 'old' Europe investing in new military kit.
Syria was the elephant in the room demonstrating yet again Europe’s disconnect from the world and from each other. In St Petersburg the
Germans had just failed to sign the declaration of the several western powers
present at the G20 meeting condemning Assad’s use of chemical weapons. Now, Berlin could be forgiven for making a
mistake given the thousand diplomatic shocks to which political flesh is heir
to during an election campaign. However, the
Germans had demurred because Europe’s ‘President’ Herman Van Rompuy had
prevailed on Berlin to wait until an EU meeting in Vilnius so as not to upset ‘les petits’. Talk about tail wagging the elephant!
Overcoming my natural
and habitual reticence I ploughed into the debate by suggesting that the Syria
crisis is in fact far more than an issue of to intervene or not to
intervene. It is an essential struggle
over the very nature of global governance with profound implications for those
who believe in values and functioning international institutions. Indeed, Syria reveals the most strategic of fights
over the future of global governance between the ‘sovereignty at any cost’
lobby led by Russia and the ‘humanity at lowest cost’ lobby led by the
Americans.
Now, there are a whole
host of reasons why the strike the Obama administration is proposing will not
work. However, the crisis also reveals the extent to which whilst the
Americans, Chinese, Russians and Indians et al play power poker Europeans continue to play
integration chess. What Europe refuses
to understand is that the truly strong do not need strategy; it is the weak that
need strategy. However, the politics of European integration today makes Europe unique in international politics; weakness without
strategy. The whole process is making Europe's big powers behave like little ones. Someone even proffered the idea that the Eurozone crisis is deepening European integration, If so it is the integration of despair.
The bottom line is that
Europe could do far more in the world. However, Europe lacks the shared vision,
will, both soft and hard power and the willingness to share risk at the point of
contact with danger upon which strategy is made.
This brings me back full
circle to my panel of defence ministers (plus little old me).
Philip Hammond the British Defence Minister rightly said there will be
no new money for European defence but Europeans must do more together. However, there also needs
to be strategic investment in twenty-first century military capabilities such as HMS
Daring if Europe's soft power is to have a vital hard edge. Sure that will involve some cost. However, a
world that drifts back to the politics of grand cynicism will prove far more costly.
There is a crisis of
global governance today and European weakness is partly responsible. Riga and its history attest to the
consequences when European democracies choose to be weak.
Julian Lindley-French
Julian Lindley-French
