Alphen, Netherlands. 18 September. The Oxford English Dictionary defines ‘superpower’
as a “very powerful and influential nation”.
On 22 September democratic Germany will go to the polls. Some commentators and politicians are posing
what they believe to be a fundamental and existential question implicit in the
election – a German Europe or a European Germany? “The Economist” in a rather silly editorial
from an increasingly silly newspaper called upon Chancellor Merkel to ‘rule’
Europe. Not only has Chancellor Merkel
not yet been re-elected but to most Germans the very idea of ‘ruling’ Europe is
as abhorrent as it is absurd. Germany has no aspirations to be a military
superpower but can she become a civil superpower? And will the elections make any difference?
Germany of course does not only have recourse to soft
power. Any analysis on the role and
utility of German force since the mid-1990s suggests a country that is slowly
reconciling itself to the use of limited military power. However, the tragic narrative of German
history means the use of German military power remains and will remain heavily
prescribed. The use of such power for
both Germans and others still demands super-legitimacy before the use of arms
can be said to be proportionate to German political aims. Indeed, if one compares the future military
plans of Britain, France and Germany it is clear that Berlin will remain by far
the weakest of Europe’s three significant military powers.
Can Germany be a civil superpower? Germany will always try to exert legitimate influence
via civil means long before it considers recourse to military action. To such an end Germany will embed much of
its efforts in institutions such as the EU, OSCE, NATO and the UN. In a sense this makes Germany a balanced
unbalanced power. Germany is balanced in
the sense that military action remains the very last resort in the minds of the
German leadership and people alike. However,
she is an unbalanced power in the sense that every other power around Germany
believes that power and influence requires a very different combination of
civil and military power.
Moreover, Germans actively seek European integration
as an alternative to German leadership.
Most object to the idea of German leadership in principle precisely
because of history and would rather Germany shape Europe from within the EU
rather than lead Europe from within or without the EU.
Will the elections make any difference? No.
Chancellor Merkel is a here and now politician, a scientist who prefers
to deal with the dilemmas and challenges that demonstrably confront her rather
than sortie out into the kind of strategy beloved of London and Paris. The SPD’s Peer Steinbruck is a pragmatic
social democrat which he demonstrated to effect when he was finance minister
during Merkel’s first term grand coalition.
Therefore, both are likely to focus on a quiet managerial approach to
solving the Eurozone crisis, although Steinbruck might favour deeper European political
integration and be less demanding on Greece, Spain and Italy as they struggle
with austerity. This would undoubtedly create friction with
Britain.
The only real difference between a Merkel-led or a
Steinbruck-led Berlin government could be that the former might move to find a
special place for Britain in what is inevitably going to become a very
different EU. A Steinbruck-led
government is far less likely to cut Cameron any slack and re-consolidate the
Franco-German partnership with fellow social democrat Francois Hollande.
Therefore, moments of German rhetorical strategic
flourish such as the recent call for an EU permanent seat on the UN Security
Council will remain precisely that. The
real danger to political balance in Europe is a Germany that becomes more
influential politically but in so doing will seek to become less powerful
militarily. If that happens then any
real hope that Europe can influence its world will be lost.
There is another factor which might confound those who
envision the emergence of a German civil superpower. To most Germans Germany does not feel that
powerful. They recall all too easily
that a few years ago Germany was deemed to be the sick man of Europe. The hyper-inflation that wrecked so many of
their great-grand-parents’ lives in the late 1920s and early 1930s is still one
of the most powerful warnings from a history still replete with warnings.
Germany is a “very
powerful and influential nation” but no superpower – civil or military. Therefore, German power will matter but more
important will be the face of German power and how Germany is perceived. Indeed, Germany can only ‘lead’ with the
consent of others. That after all is the very essence of modern Europe.
Julian Lindley-French
