Rome, Italy. 11 April.
Winston Churchill once said, “There is nothing wrong with change, as long as it
is in the right direction”. Before coming here to Rome I was in Paris with
senior NATO political and military leaders to consider the transformation of the
Alliance’s military forces. I say the
transformation of NATO forces but as with all such discussions the real
questions were political rather than military.
In spite of being French my dear friend and colleague Professor Dr Yves
Boyer made a good point; there can be no military transformation without
political adaptation. Indeed, given
events elsewhere the large elephant in the elegant room was whether and how
fast NATO’s European allies could re-learn the fundamental strategic principles
they once gave the world of classical political realism - the new normal of
power.
Classical political
realism is hard stuff. It is neither
good nor bad – it simply is. It concerns the understanding, generation and application
of power itself established on the hard tools of analysis and the sober
application of strategic judgement. The
West’s response to the Ukrainian crisis is the antithesis of political realism
with NATO Allies swinging between emotive over-reaction and narrow
self-interested under-reaction.
Russia’s unilateral use
of force to change borders and its continued use of force to intimidate Kiev and
the wider region is not a constructive contribution to European peace and
stability. However, like it or not it is
an effective application of classical political realism, a brilliant use of
power and influence in the short-term, even if it makes little strategic sense
in the medium to long-term. Europeans may
not like that but it is fact.
Before true military
transformation can take place the Alliance and its members must first
re-establish hard analysis of capability and intent that would enable the
Allies together to look beyond the politics of the moment and out to the
structure of strategy. Only then will
NATO Europeans begin to face up to what is fast becoming the new normal of
twenty-first century power politics.
As the debate in Paris
unfolded US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and his Chinese counterpart Chiang
Wiangqian were exchanging their own bit of classical political realism in a
very testy exchange in Beijing. What Hagel
was witnessing was China’s new normal; a growing power beginning to flex its power
muscles and in so doing openly objecting to America’s presence in what Beijing
clearly thinks is Mare Nostrum. The point is that the Chinese are not alone in
such balance of power thinking. Ukraine
put forward a resolution in the United Nations General Assembly condemning
Russia’s action in Ukraine-Crimea as illegal.
Almost half of the world’s states represented abstained.
Europeans need to
understand quickly two hard lessons of classical political realism. First, the West is in rapid decline and it is
a decline that is driven primarily by Europe’s retreat from such realism. The soft power fixation of Europeans is a
distinctly minority viewpoint not shared by the majority of emerging and
re-emerging powers the world over. To
expect such powers to behave by such standards is fast becoming dangerous political
hubris. Second, the only way to
effectively deter and counter the realist calculations of powers such as China
and Russia is to have sufficient military power to enable all other tools of
influence to be credible in the eyes of allies and adversaries alike.
Critically, NATO’s
attempts to inject momentum into its transformation agenda will fail unless
political leaders adapt rapidly to the ‘new’ realities of classical political
realism. Europeans in particular must
end the fantasy that they can achieve security and stability without military capability
and capacity. That will require
political leadership and the abandonment of the false lament that public
opinion would not understand it. Public
opinion is never consulted on anything else in Europe these days, particularly
when it concerns the EU.
In September the
British will host in Wales arguably the most important strategic summit NATO
has held since the end of the Cold War.
Ideally the all-important political guidance would give Alliance leaders
the task of reconsidering NATO’s military role in the twenty-first
century. That will mean a sober and
purposeful analysis of the political and military implications of the rapid change
in the global balance of power that is taking place. As hosts the British have a key role to play
in establishing such a level of ambition.
Much talk is heard at
such gatherings of China and Russia being ‘revisionist’ powers. In fact, London and other European capitals
must realise fast that Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi and indeed Washington share
many views about the utility of power. And,
they are the new normal not Europe.
If nothing else the
2014 NATO Wales Summit must begin the search for a new and shared strategic
understanding within the Alliance. For
that Europeans must return to the principles of classical political realism
they have for too long abandoned.
NATO; there can be no
military transformation without political adaptation.
Julian Lindley-French
