Alphen, Netherlands. 29
July. French statesmen Charles Maurice
de Talleyrand once said, “To succeed in the world it is much more necessary to discern
who is a fool, than to discover who is a clever man”. The tragedy of MH17 is about so much more than
the murder of 300 people or even the tragedy of eastern Ukraine. It is about a Moscow that has decided to
become a radical, revisionist power and a Europe that simply does not want to
recognise that.
Living here in the
Netherlands during these dark, depressed post MH17 days the contrast between
two very different cultures is stark. The
Kremlin seems to have retreated into a self-justifying, self-pitying narrative that
somehow the West has got it in for Russia and Moscow must act whatever the cost. The Netherlands and its people by contrast have
behaved with a quiet, solemn dignity as the bodies of MH17’s fallen have all-too-slowly
returned. There is little or no talk of
retribution here. It is a profound clash
of cultures that concerns two very different ways of seeing the world.
Yesterday I learnt that
the black boxes from MH17 confirm what the world already knew – the Malaysian
Boeing 777 airliner was shot down by a missile. The immediate cause is clear; one-group of
pro-Russian separatists under pressure from Ukrainian forces fired an SA11
missile at what they thought was a Ukrainian Air Force military transport. It was an act of brutally indifferent
incompetence made possible by Russia.
Indeed, it is not just MH17
or the illegal annexation of Crimea or even the incompetent proxy and
not-so-proxy de facto occupation of eastern Ukraine that confirms my fears of a
Kremlin (and I mean Kremlin) that has radically changed strategic course over
the past year. Through the testing of a
new ground-launched cruise missile Russia is now in possible breach of that
cornerstone of European security the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty.
And that is the
essential problem for Europe; an inability to understand the extent to which
Russia has changed track. Proof may well
come in the next couple of weeks. As pro-Russian
separatists are forced back on Donetsk and Luhansk Moscow must decide whether
it will allow their collapse or intervene.
Moscow’s worse nightmare would be a sudden collapse of the separatists
with significant amounts of Russian heavy weapons suddenly falling into
Ukrainian hands.
This morning the EU
will agree new sanctions on Russia. Much
of the haggling over the past few days within the EU has been about how best to
share the consequent pain of imposing sanctions against Russia. New EU sanctions will be imposed on the
defence, energy and finance sectors but they will be sufficiently limited not
to hurt Berlin, Paris and London too much.
The French will still sell their warships to Russia, Germany will still
send advanced engineering components to Russia’s gas industry and the City of London
will still be a haven for dodgy Russia money.
Indeed, it appears that Chancellor Merkel only agreed to even these
limited measures because President Putin did not return three of her telephone
calls this past week.
Here in the Netherlands
the question I have been asked repeatedly by my Dutch friends, family and
neighbours is that eternal question at such moments – why? For all my many years of experience in the
business of statecraft it is not a question I can easily answer. Talleyrand once said that, “The art of
statecraft is to foresee the inevitable and expedite its occurrence”.
The Kremlin seems to
believe that conflict is inevitable and that Russia must prevail. Working with Russian colleagues over many
years I have been struck often by how vulnerable Russia is to a sense of
conspiratorial victimhood to justify good old-fashioned Machtpolitik. If so then
2014 will mark much more than mere culture clash. Indeed, the loss of MH 17 may not be the 2014
equivalent of the 1914 assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and the Archduchess
Sophie. However, it is one of those big
summer moments in European history.
It has been an honour
to live here amongst a great people these past couple of weeks. To see the strength of the Dutch still seared
by anger and disbelieving incredulity that something like MH17 could happen in 2014
Europe. Will EU sanctions and other
pressures be enough to force Russia to return to the standards of international
behaviour implicit in Dutch dignity? My
sense is not and that Russia is indeed committed to a new strategic course of
action of which Ukraine is but one element. If Russia invades eastern Ukraine what then? Time will soon tell.
Julian Lindley-French
