Alphen,
Netherlands. 17 September. The other day
I was talking to a senior German politician and I was struck by the commonality
of vision between us over the future of the EU. Importantly my colleague said
that whatever the hairy-kneed lunatic Celtic fringe to the north of England
vote for tomorrow – bigness or complete non-EU littleness – the relationship
between Britain and Germany remains vital if a competitive, open-for-business Europe
is to be built established on real economics and real growth.
Implicit
in Jean-Claude Juncker’s new European Commission is perhaps a pragmatic recognition
that for the EU to survive its people must prosper and for its people to
prosper Europe must be globally competitive. For that reason the Juncker Commission headlines
jobs, growth and investment, a digital single market and, here’s the cruncher,
a deeper and fairer economic and monetary union.
Do
not get me wrong. I have not withdrawn
my citizen’s principled objection to Jean-Claude Juncker. His appointment as European Commission
President was illegitimate and reflected German domestic politics and a grubby
stitch-up/coup contre des etats between leaders in the European Parliament that
had been planned well-before the May elections. Indeed, the whole process was elite cronyism
that made a mockery of those sad pre-election TV and radio advertisements
inviting ‘we’ the citizenry to have our ‘say’ on the EU’s future. It would have been at least more honest for
said advertisements to have said “have your say peasant, whinge if you like,
but we the elite will completely ignore you”.
Still,
implicit in the composition of the new Commission is the suggestion at least
that Juncker is sensitive to his own illegitimacy and cognisant of the need for
change even if also implicit in the headlines is the mother and father of all
political and cultural battles between liberals and statists,
intergovernmentalists and federalists. The
first signs are vaguely encouraging. Whereas
the Barroso Commission was obsessed with regulation for regulation-sake and how
to impose ever greater amounts of centralising, growth-killing lollops of Brusselsness
on the rest of us the Juncker Commission has a pragmatic balance about it.
The
Commission certainly does not lack for experience or people who have fought,
won and lost national elections. Team
Juncker comprises five former prime ministers, four deputy prime ministers,
nineteen former ministers and Lord Hill.
The British appointee re-confirms that now long-established British tradition
of complaining about the illegitimacy of the European Commission whilst at the
same time proposing a Brit no-one outside of a small London clique has ever actually
heard of.
The
rest of the Commission is the usual carve up.
Whilst Commissioners are meant to remove their national shoes as they
enter New Berlaymont they of course do not.
Of the important portfolios the Italians got foreign affairs and
security policy, the French got economic and financial affairs and the Germans
got digital economy and society.
Team
Juncker will also have seven vice-presidents (how many do you need M.
Juncker?). The Commission goes to great
lengths to tell me that 3 of the 7 or 42% will be women. Indeed, the Commission goes to even greater
PC lengths to point out that nine of the twenty-eight Commissioners will be women
(whoopee!). As someone who really could
not give a toss whether an appointee is male or female my only demand is that
the appointed women are good and judged on the basis of their professionalism
not gender. Too often in this absurdly
politically-correct age one sees women appointed simply because they are women. Not only does that diminish women and champion
mediocrity it is a form of discrimination which is increasingly alienating the
rest of us who are not part of the grey, male and stale political Establishment.
Juncker
has shown genuine magnanimity towards David Cameron and the Brits. Having completely outflanked David Cameron
(which is not exactly a shortlist these days) by appointing Hill as Commissioner
for Dodgy Money, sorry Financial Services, a key British interest, Juncker is
demonstrating a willingness to understand London’s concerns. Moreover, Juncker is also signalling he
understands that once the Eurozone, Scottish and Ukrainian crises are over the
next big crisis waiting in the wings for the EU (after the coming Italian
financial crisis) is the British/English crisis.
The
key appointment is somewhat grey (sorry Frans), clearly male, and very much
part of the political Establishment, erstwhile Dutch Foreign Minister Frans
Timmermans. He will act in effect as
Juncker’s Number Two on those days when Jean-Claude is a “little under the
weather”. He will also have the critical
responsibility for reforming the European institutions and the only good joke
one ever finds in Brussels – subsidiarity.
Timmermans
will be critical in ensuring the non-Eurozone member-states are not marginalised
to the point of exclusion as and when the Eurozone core moves to deepen
political and fiscal integration. If the
Eurozone does not further integrate and undergo deep structural reforms then it
will either break up or bankrupt the few northern European taxpayers (me) that
are at present simply bankrolling a crisis trapped in a no man’s land of
irresolution…and then break up. No
pressure then.
Perhaps
Juncker’s biggest challenges will be to curb his own federalising instincts and
the Euro-fanatics who work for him whose life-work is to kill the member-states
and replace them with a country called “Europe”.
Of
course, all of this makes the real question; how does Europe prepare together
for a twenty-first century world of which it is part but over which it has
little control? Implicit in that
challenge is the biggest question of all which of course Juncker will be keen to
dodge for now; a Europe of nation-states or a European state.
Juncker
has made a good start but the key question remains; will he pursue a liberal or
a statist agenda. If he follows the
latter Europe is indeed doomed and it will simply be a matter of time before the
EU fails.
Julian
Lindley-French
