Alphen, Netherlands. 9
May, 2015. Today is Victory Day in Russia commemorating and celebrating Russia’s
crucial and critical role in the defeat of Hitler and the evil scourge that was
Nazism. Let me immediately pay tribute
to the role the then Soviet Union paid in the defeat of the Nazis and the enormous
sacrifice of its peoples. Up to 28
million Russians died in the Great Patriotic War with 75% of all Nazi forces
engaged by General Zhukov’s and General Rokossovky’s Soviet forces. For all the sacrifice elsewhere defeat of the
Nazi’s would quite simply not have been possible but for the herculean Russian
effort. Today, Russians everywhere have
a right to feel proud. Today, as a
Briton I offer my profoundest respect to Russia and Russians.
Which makes what I had
to say to a senior Russian in Budapest this week all the more necessary, and sadly,
all the more regrettable. My message was
blunt. As a student of Russian Moscow is
today charging down a dangerous, strategic blind alley that can only end in
either major conflict or major defeat for Russia…or both. Indeed, the new ‘war’ Moscow is waging against
imaginary ‘fascists’ in the West is utterly ill-conceived and can only end in
disaster for Russia and quite possibly all of us.
A week or so ago in
Rome I acted as Rapporteur for a big NATO meeting that considered Russia’s use
of strategic maskirovka/hybrid warfare – that complex mix of deception, disinformation,
active destabilisation, aggression and intimidation in which Moscow is
currently engaged. Moscow’s aim is to keep the rest of us permanently strategically,
politically and militarily off-balance.
As part of that meeting I chaired three of NATO’s top commanders in a
discussion about how best to counter Russia’s use of military intimidation. Today 16,000 Russia troops will march through
Red Square supported by the latest Russian tanks and military aircraft,
together with two Iskander M mobile tactical nuclear missile launchers. The show of Russian military might on show
today is meant to send a ‘message’ of Russian might to fellow Europeans like me
and my leaders. The message from my NATO
commanders was clear; should heaven forbid a shooting war ever break-out in
Europe between Russia and NATO Russia would lose.
President Putin is not
simply engaged in strategic maskirovka for the sake of it. His strategy is clearly designed to lever
effects at two levels. At the grand
strategic level President Putin is endeavouring to reinvigorate Russia’s
strategic brand and the influence and effect Moscow seeks to exert to its east,
south, north and, of course, west. That
is why the guest of honour today is President Xi Jingping of China, with the
President’s strategic ‘messaging’ to the West loud and clear. At the domestic level all of this sabre-rattling
and sabre-toying is designed to ensure the survival of President Putin
domestically by wrapping the Kremlin in an enormous, nostalgic Russian flag.
And, for the record, I
regret the refusal of many Western leaders to attend today’s ceremonies in Moscow.
Whatever one thinks of Moscow’s use of hybrid warfare in Ukraine it is Russia’s
sacrifice and ultimate triumph seventy years ago that 9 May commemorates. Moreover, I fully understand that Russia has legitimate
interests and rights that must be respected. I am also prepared to accept that President
Putin is genuine in his world-view. The
President clearly has a classical view of power and does not accept the ‘community’
concept of international relations pioneered by and implicit in the European
Union. He is certainly not ‘duty’ bound
to see the world the same way many other Europeans see it.
However, what saddens
me most about Russia’s use of hybrid warfare today is the betrayal of political
principle it implies. Worse, I am
witnessing the sad retreat of a country which I hold in the highest regard into
political cynicism that goes far beyond political realism. The struggle against Nazism was essentially
about the upholding of norms in international relations; that might for might’s
sake is not only not right, but never right, and that free peoples have the
right to free sovereign choice. Then
Soviet leader Josef Stalin may have disagreed with me about this but my pious hope
has always been that contemporary Russia would demonstrate its greatness by
championing such ideals and respecting them.
Russia can never be ‘great’ in the way it is behaving today, and does
not need to behave this way.
Therefore, as a friend
of Russia, I feel deeply disappointed and concerned to see Russia dragging
Europe down into the abyss of power balances and spheres of unwanted influence. Indeed, Ukraine has become but the front-line
of a much greater and even more dangerous systemic struggle, and I say that
with due respect to the people of Ukraine and their current agony.
In my latest book
Little Britain I berate my own country’s leaders for too often turning am major
power into a minor one. Russia is also a great country, a great power and a
great state. However, at present it is acting
like a stupid one. As I said in
Budapest, there can be no European security without Russia and all of us want
Russia to take its rightful place as a leader of the European family. And, to see that happen we are prepared to be
patient and sit down and address sensibly Russian grievances. However, Moscow
must understand one thing; we will not negotiate with Russia with a Russian gun
pointed to our heads.
There is a reason why
Russia celebrates Victory Day on 9 May whilst the rest of us celebrate VE Day
on 8 May that is itself indicative. After British Field Marshal Montgomery took
the surrender of all Nazi forces in north-west Europe on 4 May a period a
wrangling then took place as to where the final, final, final surrender should
be signed. On 8 May the Nazis
surrendered (again) at Rheims to Supreme Commander, Allied Expeditionary Force
General Dwight D. Eisenhower. However,
at Stalin’s insistence the Nazi’s surrendered (again) in Berlin on 9 May in a
ceremony organised and overseen by the Red Army. Complex though it was the multiple surrenders
culminating as they did in the main signing in Berlin was, given Russian
sacrifice, entirely appropriate.
In honour of Russia’s
fallen; Za Rodinu! Za Rossiya!
Julian Lindley-French
