“I am a fool with a
heart but no brains, and you are a fool with brains but no heart; and we’re
both unhappy and we both suffer”.
Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Idiot
Alphen, Netherlands. 20 June. It seemed,
I suppose, fitting. In a speech to President Putin at the St Petersburg
Economic Forum Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi reminded the Russian President
that Dostoyevsky had written The Idiot
in Florence. Who is playing the idiot now? Certainly not President Putin. As
Renzi announced deals in St Petersburg with Russia worth some €1.3bn it was as
though Russia had done little to concern anyone of late; the illegal annexation
of Crimea, the forced detachment of much of eastern and south-eastern Ukraine,
the downing of MH17 by an anti-aircraft missile from a missile battery belonging
to the Kursk-based 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, the
treaty-busting stationing of treaty-illegal nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, and
the almost daily illegal incursions by the Russian Air Force into the air space
of Baltic and Nordic EU and NATO members.
In a breathtaking act of
political insincerity Renzi danced on the head of a legalistic pin to justify the
deals. The deals were not technically in breach of EU sanctions, he said,
because they cover infrastructure and energy. And yet everyone in St Petersburg
with half a brain knew exactly what Renzi was doing. The only ‘strategic’
matter of import to him is that on his watch in 2015 the Italian budget deficit
ballooned to a record (even by Italian standards) 132.7% of GDP. Italy is
broke, the Italian debt crisis will soon break, and Renzi will do whatever deal
he can, with whoever he can, to delay what is now the inevitable.
President Putin understands all
of the above, precisely because President Putin understands power…and weakness.
He certainly understands the strategic
implications of his Italian Job which is why he is pushing it. Moreover, the deal
could not have been announced at a worse time for NATO, something which is not
lost on Moscow. With the July NATO Warsaw Summit beckoning the Italians have at
the stroke of a misplaced pen revealed there is little or no strategic unity of
purpose in the Alliance. To Rome the
Russians can intimidate Eastern European allies all they like just so long as
Italy can get down and do a dirty deal with Moscow.
Consequences? Putin has brought a
political cleaver down right through the middle of NATO and prized open an
existing cleavage. There will be much empty rhetoric at the Warsaw Summit about
NATO’s so-called 360 degree adaptation; that through political solidarity and the
efficient use of Allied forces credible deterrence will be afforded the Eastern
Allies against Russia, and a credible defence mounted in the south against
ISIS. Many words, little meaning, even fewer forces.
Rather, Renzi has demonstrated there
are two NATOs. One NATO defends Eastern Europe against Russian aggression,
about which Italy cares little. The other NATO helps defend against ISIS and
threats from the south to Italy, of which after the Renzi deal Eastern
Europeans will also care little.
Renzi has also revealed the
essential and dangerous contradiction, dare I say lie that is European defence.
Europeans are all too happy to defend their own bit of Europe, but not each
other. After all, is not defending Europe what the American taxpayer is for?
If the St Petersburg kow-tow to
Putin was Renzi alone then maybe the damage to Alliance and EU strategic unity
of effort and purpose could have been contained. However, just when one thought
it was safe to go out up pops ‘President’ Juncker to imply that EU sanctions
on Russia might soon be lifted. You can always count on good-old Jean-Claude,
the former prime minister of superpower Luxembourg, to put his political foot
in his strategic mouth. Worse, German Foreign Minister Franz-Walter Steinmeier
even suggested that by undertaking Exercise
Anaconda in Eastern Europe NATO was “warmongering”. This is the stuff of Monty Python, the political
equivalent of being forced to apologise to a bully for striking one in the
face. "Run away!"
By the way, you might like to
know Herr Steinmeier that since 2014 Russia has conducted twelve major snap
exercises all of which have been designed to intimidate Eastern European allies
and partners from Tallinn to Warsaw. Moreover, your government agreed to Allied exercises at the 2014 NATO Warsaw Summit as a necessary demonstration of
Alliance solidarity and strategic reassurance. There are also some 120,000
Russia troops if not threatening the Baltic States, at least implying a threat.
They are all peacekeepers of course.
Statecraft 101: it is enough to
make this seasoned strategist weep. Juncker, Renzi and Steinmeyer all share a
desperate desire to promote dialogue with Putin by sacrificing strategy to
short-term politics, and security for trade, in the hope that trade can provide
security.
Dialogue with President Putin is
needed but must only take place as part of considered statecraft and from a
position of strength. Such dialogue begins first with confidence-building
measures being undertaken by both sides. Kind words are then matched with good
deeds, and then built-up over time to a moment when both sides deem a formal
codification of bona fides to be
appropriate.
Instead, Prime Minister Renzi has
sold Italy, the EU and NATO down the Tiber, Juncker seems to have forgotten not
just the threat to EU citizens Russia continues to pose, but how many died due
to Russian military incompetence, whereas Steinmeier clearly does not
understand statecraft. We British remember a word for that from our own history;
appeasement.
President Putin says Russia demands
respect. Why would he want respect from European leaders who repeatedly and
consistently demonstrate that they fail to understand power, statecraft, and
the considered application of both?
Who indeed is the real idiot now?
