Alphen, Netherlands. 25 June. It
is 30 hours or so since Britain’s historic decision to leave the EU and the fallout
and backlash is just beginning. What do I feel now about Brexit? Over those hours
I have been saddened but little shocked by the vitriol sent my way. One email even
suggested that Britain has become an enemy of Europe, whatever that means. Emails
have been refused, and one good friendship lost, which I regret. But don’t
worry, I can take it. After all, I am cut from the same Yorkshire oak as the
many of the people that drove this decision, and I have always taken responsibility for my
writings.
I am an analyst and my job is to
analyse. Back in 2010 I did believe Britain should leave the EU. Britain was
mired in a massive banking crisis, and the Eurozone was mired in a massive debt
crisis. The Eurozone faced a choice; integrate or collapse. Britain did not
face such a choice.
Back then it was clear to my mind
that the only way for the Eurozone to resolve the crisis, and indeed make the
Euro work was a deepening of European political and monetary union, including a
banking union. Eurozone leaders still face that choice, they just haven’t taken
it. And so the Eurozone crisis bubbles away below a thin crust of apparent
political stability ready to explode at any moment. Given that Britain was never going to part of deeper political integration my
on balance sense was that back then Britain should leave the EU.
What has I admit irritated me
throughout this entire intervening period is the extent to which some senior
Americans have treated my country as a strategic public convenience; Britain and
the British people as mere instrument of American grand strategy. In so doing
they have denied that Britain is a living, breathing democracy with its own
issues, and its own tensions, its own interests, and its own political identity.
The Obama administration has routinely dismissed British concerns about the
direction of travel of the EU as some kind of post-Imperial psychosis rather
than seen such concerns for what they are; a complex reflection of the same
distrust of distant power that drove their own revolution back in 1776, and about
which Americans are so proud. Indeed, far from backing British calls for EU
reform the Obama Administration tried to force Britain into into simply accepting
a status quo that was never sustainable over the longer term. Still, one can
hardly blame the Americans for that Little Britain view of Britain. Too many needy
British leaders have convinced American leaders to think of Britain as little
more than an American strategic public convenience.
Several events led me to shift my
position on the EU. The outbreak of the Syrian war and the emergence of ISIS
began to change the strategic environment in which Britain and Europe reside,
and threatened the collapse of states across the Middle East and North Africa.
In 2014 Russia seized Crimea and began the long dissection of Ukraine which
continues to this day. Moscow also began to threaten and intimidate Central, Eastern
and Northern Europe. Huge flows of desperate people forced their way into Europe
and compounded the many problems faced by countries in southern Europe. In
November 2015 ISIS terrorists attacked Paris and then Brussels. Whilst I
retained some sympathy for the frustrations many feel in Britain about the EU.
and the way it is run, in such circumstances I could not countenance Britain
leaving the EU.
There will be some Americans who
will also blame Brexit for the weakening of NATO. OK, I will admit that there
can be no EU Common Security and Defence Policy worthy of the name without
Britain. But then, there never was going to be a truly ‘C’ CSDP with Britain
because to make the ‘C’ word mean something a European government would be required. How many of
you out there really want a European government? Your call.
As for NATO it is not Britain
that has weakened the Alliance. After all, under NATO rules the British are one
of of only four Allies who actually meet the target of 2% GDP to be spent on
defence with 20% on new equipment. If there is any one factor that has prevented
so many Allies meeting what should be a minimum commitment to the Alliance it
is the Eurozone rule that prevents a state ratcheting up a budget deficit of
more than 3% GDP, even at a time of crisis. Don’t blame Britain for that.
Next week President Hollande and
Chancellor Merkel will hold one of their directoire
meetings to discuss the post-Brexit EU. Years ago I called for a trirectoire and the inclusion of British
prime ministers in such meetings. After all, Britain is Europe’s second
biggest economy and strongest military power. That call was rejected. It has
always seemed to me one of the EU’s many contradictions how European ‘integration’
has always been defined by two major powers and their national interests in the
name of ‘Europe’.
Here’s the irony. At that meeting Merkel and Hollande will call for a more flexible Europe. They will not agree on much else. Had they done that even a few days ago they may have swung enough undecided British voters (you know the people who are meant to matter, but to much of the elite do not) to back Remain.
Here’s the irony. At that meeting Merkel and Hollande will call for a more flexible Europe. They will not agree on much else. Had they done that even a few days ago they may have swung enough undecided British voters (you know the people who are meant to matter, but to much of the elite do not) to back Remain.
Brexit also marks a moment of
opportunity. With Britain about to leave the EU we will see just how
enthusiastic those Europeans (and Americans) who have long blamed Britain for
blocking ‘progress’ really are for some form of United States of Europe. This
is your moment, guys. No longer can you Euro-federalists blame us British for
blocking your glorious Project Europe. I suspect, however, we will soon discover
just how many of you do not actually want ever closer political union.
Brexit was long in the making,
but too many refused to see it coming. Read my blogs and other writings and I warned people that Brexit could happen because for years Britain and the Real EU, the
Eurozone, have been drifting apart. Brexit has now formalised what for a long
time has been an observable fact on the ground. Indeed, those that argued that
by remaining in the EU Britain would be upholding the status quo were talking
as much rubbish as those that argued leaving would mark the start of a new
Elizabethan age for Britain, or more accurately England. The EU was never going to, nor could it ever, remain
where it is today; trapped between debt, integration, and impotence.
So, we all have a choice to make
right now. If the blame game of the past 24 hours gathers pace then Brexit will
indeed weaken Europe, Britain and the West and there will be no winners at all.
If, however, common sense prevails and a period of calm reflection is then followed
by sober considerations of how best to proceed mutually beneficial outcomes can
be crafted and at least some positives will come out of this mess. The next two
and a half years would then be about the nature of Britain’s future
relationship with a future EU. Good sense would ensure such a relationship works
for all – Britons (even Scots), other Europeans, and even Americans.
As for Britain as enemy, really?
There are plenty of those elsewhere. So, keep calm and carry on talking.
