“His courage, cunning, energy and patience made him
the most remarkable man of his time”
Ali
ibn al-Athir on Richard the Lionheart during the Third Crusade (1189-1192)
Alphen, Netherlands. 19 December.
Europe’s small-minded, little thinking little leaders seem unable to grasp the
strategic ambition behind Putin’s Great Crusade. With the brutal fall of Aleppo
this past weekend President Putin is well on his way to creating a puppet state
in the Middle East as his Great Crusade gathers momentum. The West has failed Aleppo
and itself in part because its leaders thought Putin was fighting a small war
for small ends. In fact, Putin is fighting a a series of small ‘wars’ in
pursuit of very big strategic ends; influence around the Black Sea, through south-eastern
Europe, across much of the Levant and the northern Middle East, as well as the
Mediterranean basin.
On 20 December, as the marginalised West begins its long Christmas break and in spite of today's tragic murder of the Russian ambassador to Turkey, a series of meetings will begin between Iran, Russia, Syria and Turkey to discuss a resolution to
end the Syrian War. Even though Ankara has hitherto been an implacable opponent of Assad it is likely Syrian ‘moderates’
(both real and synthetic) will be invited to ‘peace’ talks charged with ending
the war and re-establishing some domestic ‘legitimacy’ for the Assad
puppet-state. A general war is also likely be declared against all ‘terrorists’,
i.e. any groups deemed to be standing in the way of the interests of the four
states represented. This will include all Islamist groups, including some
Sunni groups close to the Saudis, and all Kurdish groups inimical to President
Erdogan. Erdogan will also be offered an anti-Kurd ‘buffer zone’ along Turkey’s
southern border, not dissimilar to the one Putin himself seeks along his own
western border. The meeting will also probably pave the way for the coming attack on
Idlib.
The very fact of the
meeting, its timing, and its location is strategically critical. In the face of
lamentable Western weakness 2016 saw President Putin become the power-broker
across much of the northern Middle East and beyond. He has strengthened Shia Iran in its proxy
wars with Western-leaning Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Co-operation Council, tightened
a strategic vice on Israel, and forced the government in Baghdad to look increasingly
to him and not the Americans. By confirming Russia’s in-for-the-long-haul
military presence at his two military bases in Syria Putin now threatens Cyprus
and has extended his influence across the Mediterranean basin, both north and
south.
However, Putin’s ‘jewel
in the crown’ at the Moscow meeting will be Turkey. In this year of shocks
(i.e. Western retreat) much has been made about Brexit and the election in the
US of an apparently pro-Putin President-elect Trump. However, the biggest strategic
shock to the West in 2016 has been the rapid loss of Turkey. Just over a year
ago in November 2015 Turkey shot down a Russian fighter-bomber. Russo-Turkish
relations were at a low ebb. A year on and Russia and Turkey are fast-forging a
strategic partnership with immense implications for the region, NATO and the West.
So, why is Turkey
switching allegiance? President Erdogan has all but abandoned the
Western-leaning strategy of modern Turkey’s great founder, Mustafa Kamal Ataturk.
Erdogan was deeply frustrated and angered by what he saw as lukewarm Western
support during the failed July 2016 coup attempt. Erdogan also believes that
Moscow will prove a more decisive ally than the West in preventing the emergence
of a de facto Kurdistan. 2016 was also the year that Turkey’s ambitions to join
the EU finally evaporated.
What does Putin gain from
such an alliance? The Russo-Turkish alliance changes the big strategic picture.
Firstly, Putin now has protected access for the Russian Black Seas fleet into
the Mediterranean. After concluding operations off Syria I would not be at all
surprised if the aircraft-carrier Admiral
Kuznetsov and its six ship task group sail into the Black Sea and onto
Sevastopol. Secondly, with a pro-Russian government in Bulgaria, an EU
member-state, and Russian influence over Cyprus, Greece, Hungary and Italy
growing. President Putin is offsetting Russia’s intrinsic relative weakness vis-à-vis
the West by ‘deconstructing’ his adversaries. Thirdly,
the Turkish alliance helps Putin further dissemble NATO. Since the coup Ankara
has steadily removed Western-leaning officials and officers from the command
chain of the Alliance and replaced them with ultra-nationalist hardliners.
Furthermore, if Francois
Fillon is elected ‘President de la
Republique’ in May 2017 I would not be at all surprised if the two French-built
Mistral-class assault ships recently ‘sold’
to Egypt suddenly appeared alongside the Kuznetsov.
This would create a powerful Russian Mediterranean Fleet just at the moment
when the US Navy is being challenged to over-stretch in the Pacific. The sooner
the British can bring its two new fleet carriers fully into service the better.
However, to do so the British must for once see beyond London’s strategic
myopia and look at Putin’s big strategic picture, and properly prepare those
ships for service.
However, a word of
warning. In 1095 sheer force of Frankish arms conquered Jerusalem for the
Crusaders. For fifty or so years the Frankish kingdom tried to consolidate itself.
However, in 1187 Jerusalem fell to the mighty Salah ah-Din Yussuf ibn Ayyub. Allegiances and prospects can change very
quickly in the Middle East and Putin could lose all his influence just as quickly
as he has gained it.
2016 has been the year of
Putin and at the Moscow meeting he will demonstrate that to the world and to his
own people on the eve of the Russian Orthodox Christmas on January 7th.
President Putin has succeeded because he understands the cynical application of
power and strategy. Because of that President Putin is brilliantly changing the
strategic order not just in the Middle East, but across much of Europe, and
along Russia’s southern borders.
Perhaps President Putin
has been inspired by the words of the Salah al-Din. On seizing Aleppo in 1183 Salah
ah-Din said that Aleppo was “the key to all the lands”. He also said, “I warn you against shedding
blood, indulging in it and making a habit of it, for blood never sleeps”.
Julian Lindley-French
