Alphen, Netherlands. 3
July. This blog coincides with the publication of a new book edited by
Professor Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson entitled 2020: World of War (London: Hodder) in which I have a chapter. A
second blog on the book itself will be published later in the week.
The mission of this blog
is to confront difficult policy and strategy issues. With badly-managed hyper-immigration into Europe
once again on the rise this blog poses two policy questions. What is the link between migration and
terrorism? What level of increased risk will be imposed on European citizens
through the importing of conflicts made elsewhere whilst Europe’s leaders fail
to find a balance between security and humanity? This blog makes no judgement on those seeking
a better life in Europe. As an immigrant myself I would do exactly the same if
faced with the same circumstances. It
takes incredible courage/desperation to set off into the unknown in the hands, and at the mercy of the unscrupulous. However, migration and terrorism are twin
crises that when combined with mismanagement in Europe enable a link between them.
Relevant Facts
The International Office
of Migration says that thus far in 2017 some 95,768 people have entered Europe
illegally across the Mediterranean. Some 85% have made the crossing from Libya
to Italy, with over 500,000 having passed through Italian ports since 2014. In
2016 over 10,000 arrived in Spain from Morocco, a 46% increase over the
previous year. A leaked German
government report of May this year suggested up to 6 million illegal immigrants
were waiting to cross the Mediterranean into Europe, with over 1500 having died
already in 2017 trying to make the crossing. One Spanish official warns that
Spain is facing an “avalanche” of people.
The other day I gave a
talk in Vienna to language professionals on the front-line of migration
management. My speech focused on the relationship between badly-managed hyper-immigration
and terrorism. My essential point was that most European leaders will do almost
anything to avoid answering the questions I have posed at the outset of this
blog, rendering impossible the making of policy and the crafting of strategy.
Consequently, the risk grows daily to the very people to whom, and for whom, they
are meant to be responsible. Three recent tragedies in my own country, Britain,
serve to illustrate the extent to which political leaders are failing, even
refusing, to protect their own citizens.
Home-grown or imported?
Politicians talks
increasingly of home-grown terrorism when atrocities are committed. Really? The
recent attacks in the UK were all the products (save one) of immigration. The
suicide bombing in Manchester, which killed twenty-two and injured many more,
was committed by a first generation Briton of Libyan descent whose family had
been granted political asylum in the 1990s. Two of the three terrorists who
committed the London Bridge attacks were born in Pakistan and Morocco
respectively, whilst the third was of Moroccan-Italian extraction. Only the (alleged) terrorist who attacked Muslims outside a mosque in North London identified
himself with what might be termed extremist nativist identity.
Last month Britain’s
Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that over the last year the UK
population grew by the largest number since 1947, when huge number of British
servicemen returned to the country in the wake of World War Two. According to
the Head of the Population Estimation Unit at the ONS, “net international
migration continued to be the main driver”. This would tally with recent Home
Office (interior ministry) figures that suggest that each year up to 250,000
immigrants simply disappear from official view. In other words,
the British government has no clue who is in the country, making the crafting
of security policy almost impossible. Much the same can be said for the rest of
Europe.
Strategic Implications
Strategic
implications? Control
of immigration has clearly been lost by the British and other European
states. Consequently, trust is breaking
down between Europe’s citizens and their states/EU over this issue. It is a breakdown of trust that accelerates in
the wake of every terrorist attack creating the political space for so-called
‘populists’ to exploit, which in turn widens the gap between communities within
society.
Societal
challenges? It is in that gap between communities
where terrorism is so often spawned. Even if migrants eventually gain the right
to stay in Europe, as most do, there is little evidence of their being properly
integrated into society. Britain
again. Trevor Phillips, the former
Chairman of the Commission for Racial Equality warned recently that
‘communities’ in Britain now live “parallel lives” with little contact between
them.
Policy
assumptions? London is seemingly incapable of
deporting all but a few of those who have no right to be in the country, and given
the growing pressure from huge numbers of people from war-torn and impoverished
societies to get into Britain, such pressures will only grow. As will the threat from terrorism. As Mosul
and Raqqa fall Islamic State terrorists will disperse with many of them
doubtless seeking to return to Europe from the Levant hell bent on causing
carnage.
Analysis? The refusal of Europe’s elite to recognise the link between badly-managed hyper-immigration
and terrorism prevents coherent policy and strategy being crafted to deal with either or
both. It is this failure of policy that provides the sombre answer to the
questions I posed at the outset of this blog. Consequently, the level of risk imposed
on British/European citizens will increase steadily through a mix of political
incompetence and misplaced political correctness. Result? Many more
Europeans – black, white, and people of faith and of no faith – will die because
leaders lack the political courage to do what is necessary to make their own people
safe.
What to do?
The strategic aim of
policy should be an end to uncontrolled, badly-managed hyper-immigration, the
re-establishment of control, the effective management of sustainable levels of
immigration, and a proper understanding, and thus separation of the migration
crisis from the terrorism crisis, via considered and properly applied policy and
strategy. The ‘solution’ to what is a
systemic crisis, and the confluence between hyper-migration and terrorism, will
require political courage, effective management, sustained efforts at
integration, and long-term investment in source countries over the short,
medium, and longer-terms.
Effective
management: People with a right to asylum must be
assessed quickly and afforded sanctuary. However, asylum must not be a backdoor
route to permanent residency in Europe.
Those with no right to stay must be returned from whence they came,
albeit in a manner consistent with Europe’s commitment to humane
treatment. Those who discard their
papers in an attempt to thwart identification must be assessed by language and
dialect experts. More routes should be
made available for properly managed immigration to Europe. Border checks should
be rigorously enforced with a proper EU-wide effort to support the front-line
states such as Cyprus, Greece, Italy and Spain.
In Britain’s case identity cards must finally be issued to everyone in
the UK. It is simply unacceptable that a country that is so obviously a target
for terrorism has little or no idea who is in the country. Efforts by legions
of human rights lawyers to thwart due process in deportation cases must be
resisted.
Integration:
Far more systematic efforts must be made to foster social cohesion between host
societies and immigrants. Efforts could include the recruiting of Imams born in
their host country, rather than importing them from abroad. Much greater efforts also need to be made in
language training. In fact, once such
communities are established many second and third generation citizens do very
well at school and in broader education. They must be afforded every
opportunity so to do. In return for sustained efforts to promote better
integration European governments must also work with communities to promote
deradicalisation. The flow of money from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States
into Europe in support of radical interpretations of Islam, such as Wahhabism,
must be stopped, whatever the diplomatic consequences. The Times today reveals that London has suppressed a report that
identifies the scale of financial support from Saudi Arabia for such extremism.
Investment:
More sustained efforts is needed by all Europeans via the EU to inform and
deter would be migrants from undertaking such a perilous gamble in the first
place. This will also require the sustained application of aid and development
in source countries. Too often aid and
development by European states reflects more the ticking of politically-correct
boxes than a systematic and rigorous outcomes-driven application of taxpayer’s
money in pursuit of strategic security goals.
Mind the Gap
Europe is not as yet a Kumbaya society. Badly-managed
hyper-immigration involves importing into Europe the very stresses, problems,
and indeed dangers, from which migrants are fleeing. Yes, there can be an
upside to immigration, but there are also huge dangers for Europeans that range
from crime to terrorism, as well as the creeping paralysis of effective
foreign, security and defence policies as European leaders seek to ‘buy off’
diverse groups within society. Until Europe’s leaders properly confront the
link between migration and terrorism the gap between what the politicians say,
and the experience ordinary people face on the street, will continue to widen
with profound implications for the very trust upon which society relies.
For Britain the
implications of the twin crises are sobering. A state that cannot control its
borders, does not know who is in the country, cannot house those people in the country properly, provide security, and which is led by people
who refuse to face reality – Left and Right – is a country in terminal decline. That, I fear, is the future for my once proud
country, but one which could also apply equally to the rest of Europe. Make no mistake, Europe’s society-bending, society-changing hyper-immigration crisis is only just beginning, and Europe’s leaders
are in denial. What more could the terrorists want?
Unregulated hyper-immigration
would always pose a policy challenge to European leaders. However, it is the
confluence of huge and fast flows of unregulated migrants with Salafist
jihadism that poses a real threat to Europe. That might seem a statement of the
blindingly obvious. Sadly, it is not for too many of Europe’s in-denial leaders. For once Europe’s
leaders must have the courage to face reality, and be honest about it.
