“We
who have put this book together know very well that the only forecast that can
be made with any confidence of the course and outcome of another world war,
should there be one, is that nothing will happen exactly as we have shown here”.
The
Third World War, August 1985: A Future History
General
Sir John Hackett
Alphen, Netherlands. 6
July. With the world stuttering towards a possible armed confrontation between
the US and North Korea, and between superpower America and proto-superpower
China, it seems appropriate to announce the publication of a new book in which I
have made two very substantial contributions. Entitled 2020: World of War (London: Hodder) the book is edited by my friend
Professor Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson, and is (of course) brilliant and
very reasonably priced.
The book sets out a
series of dangerous, but plausible scenarios that “depicts twenty-first century
international security as a complex of interwoven pressures, challenges,
hazards and threats”. Critically, the
book avoids overly-military prescriptions and advocates the need for a real
joined-up government and governance approach to dealing with complex crises. At
the heart of the book there are seven scenarios, although the threat posed by
Russia’s strategic challenge is also considered, together with a piece entitled
Strategy in Breadth, which captures
the essence of both the challenge and the much-needed strategic response.
Scenario 1: Unravelling Imperiums: China and the US in the
South-East Asia Region. China in 2020 is on the verge of re-establishing one
of its greatest historic achievements; reclaiming its place at the centre of
world affairs. However, Beijing’s
actions are clumsy and aggressive leading to dangerous frictions across Asia-Pacific,
but most particularly in south-east Asia.
What if strategic miscalculations by China are matched by similar mis-steps
in other key capitals?
Scenario 2: The Afghan Factor. Afghanistan in 2020
is still a failing state, and unlikely to be stable for the foreseeable future.
India and Pakistan continue to struggle, both overtly and covertly, to assert
dominant control over southern Afghanistan. As the West retreats in the wake of
a failed stabilisation mission and tensions mount a combination of poor policy
decisions in Islamabad and New Delhi, terrorist attacks, transnational
organised crime, and nuclear proliferation results in that worst of all
nightmares; a pre-emptive nuclear strike.
Scenario 3: The Caliphate Resurrected: Cairo in Chaos.
In 2020 having lost Mosul and Raqqa, and with Egypt collapsing, a reinvigorated
IS establishes a powerful base in lawless Libya. As IS shifts the centre of gravity of the
campaign to create a new Caliphate they come to an uneasy but enduring alliance
with Al Qaeda. Specifically, they see an opportunity to exploit the huge
numbers of disaffected migrants trapped in camps across southern Europe. They set
out to recreate the Ummayid Caliphate of the 8th century across North
Africa and Southern Europe. The campaign fails because most migrants want
nothing to do with either AQ or IS, but not before several months of
lawlessness is endured as gangs of terrorists roam across southern Europe, and
co-ordinated terrorist attacks take place in the cities of northern and western
Europe.
Scenario 4: The Passenger in Seat 7B. In 2020 a
hitherto virtual threat becomes real as an individual exploits the interplay
between criminality, terrorism, advanced weaponry and the darker reaches of
cyber-space, to force the effective collapse of UK border security.
Scenario 5: Dark Code: The Cyber-security Challenge.
A massive cyber-attack takes place on the British power grid. Several people
are killed and many injured as a result of the attack. However, only later does
the geostrategic significance of the attack become apparent…
Scenario 6: A Disunited Kingdom: UK Domestic Security. Brexit
has many consequences, but perhaps the least understood is the impact on the
Union itself. As Scotland gains independence the bonds between the four home
nations fray and border security becomes an internal issue for the islands for
the first time since the 1998 Good Friday agreement led to the removal of the
border between the UK and the Irish Republic. On the UK mainland the impact is
far, far greater as internal border security is forced onto to the agenda for
the first time since the Union of Crowns in 1603.
Scenario 7: Operation Imperfect Storm. Based on a
scenario I have been offering in various speeches and lectures for some five
years now this scenario poses THE most sobering question of all. What if
several (or all) of these scenarios occurred simultaneously? Fantasy? Think
about it. None of the scenarios are entirely implausible in the twenty-first
century, which means they could in some form all be plausible together – a meltdown
in the Middle East, Russian cyber and territorial aggression in central and
eastern Europe, and armed conflict in the South China Sea between the US and
China.
The message of the book
is clear: if peace is to be preserved as some sort of recognisable state, and today’s
complex international security environment is to be managed effectively to that
end, policy-makers and strategists must have the capacity and the confidence to
deal with a wide-range of evolving security challenges.
Former NATO
Secretary-General Lord Robertson says of the book, “This informed and expert
book examines credible scenarios of what might happen, could happen, and
hopefully won’t happen”.
2020: World of War…or big
strategy for dumb, little leaders. As the Yanks like to say, "have a nice day".
