hms iron duke

hms iron duke

Monday, 2 May 2011

Goodbye, Ron. Job Done!

Ron Asmus is dead. The security community has lost one of its greats. I knew Ron for many years and had nothing but liking and respect for him. He was not just an analyst, we are ten a penny, but a man who had been at the coalface of geo-politics and wore the soot on his face with pride.

I am off to Estonia this week to address a high-level conference. As a child of the Cold War my freedom to go to that great country has much to do with the vision and determination of Ron. A couple of years ago Ron and I were in Afghanistan together as he struggled with the illness that has claimed him. He took a photo of me on a first contact visit with US forces. It is a photo I treasure not just because of the implicit “I was there” all arm-chairers seek for legitimisation, but also because it was taken by Ron; for whom an arm-chair was a lethal weapon on the battleground of negotiation.

No soaring rhetoric, no slick reference to popular culture.

Ron, job done!

Julian Lindley-French

Thursday, 28 April 2011

The HMS Highly Unlikelys - Is Britain a Pocket Superpower or Super-Belgium?

Oh no, not again! The BBC’s Robert Peston yesterday discovered that the two currently under construction and now infamous British aircraft carriers, HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales will cost more than originally envisaged. One outlier estimate has the cost as high as £10bn, rather than the £3.9bn budgeted for. This is apparently news.

There are two truisms about Royal Navy capital ships. First, they always cost at least twice the original quoted amount. Second, that almost all British ships with the name Invincible will be sunk.

I got myself into some trouble (nothing new there then) in Washington last year when at a high-level meeting I called the two carriers, HMS Highly Unlikely and HMS Very Improbable. That was before the Strategic Pretence and Impecunity Review during which the government discovered that it would cost more to scrap the two monsters than to complete them.

I have thus far been an agnostic on the carriers, especially as I believe the first order challenge is to extricate ourselves from Afghanistan with a semblance of strategic credibility. However, I have come round to them – and in time both of them. Why? Future defence strategy will be built around the ability to strike and punish rather than stay and stabilise.  The carriers will be critical to that.

Furthermore, they are not just aircraft carriers and will perform a range of useful maritime/amphibious tasks. They will also fly a very important flag – the White Ensign - which still implies a vestige of influence. Thus far we have seen everything through the lens of Afghanistan and it has understandably coloured strategy. There is endless debate in London about how to do future Afghanistans better. Unfortunately, the political appetite is such that there is about as much chance of Britain doing a future Afghanistan (at least on that scale) as there is of Sheffield United (a ‘soccer’ club to those uninitiated Americans amongst you) winning the Champions League. I could of course be proved wrong – Sheffield United may indeed win the Champions League. 

Rather, post Afghanistan Britain is going to need sufficient military power to a) influence Americans; b) lead European coalitions alongside the French; and c) lead ‘Commonwealth’ coalitions with Australian, Canadian and other partners. Why? Because the epicentre of global competition will be the Indian Ocean and the main focal point of activity will be the so-called Littoral (coastal bits to you and me) where 75% of the world’s population live within 100kms of the coast.

Britain is a maritime power. We have transitioned out of the Cold War focus on the defence of Northern Europe through Iraq and Afghanistan to an extra-European global role – albeit a modest one, as Libya attests. Today, Britain is in the worst of all worlds – too powerful to hide, too weak to effectively influence. Therefore, these floating airfields will serve several useful roles. First, they will act as platforms for the projection of critical air and supporting land power to critical places. Second, they will offer a command leadership role for Britain which is part of influence. Third, they will tell Washington (and others) that Britain is still in the power game.

Furthermore, the two ships are likely to have a life expectancy of over fifty years and will serve as the core of a new Royal Navy which Britain will desperately need, and one which is currently deeply depressed. That navy will in turn be needed as part of a balanced, joint and mutually reinforcing defence strategy in which no one service owns air, land or sea. That is also why we need both carriers. Current plans to sell one of them upon completion completely negate the point of the other one. Even if we have to mothball the Prince of Wales (now to be called Ark Royal) for a time upon completion it will be needed in the 2020s and beyond.

There is a problem. Years ago I wrote a piece called “The Hood Trap” in which I likened the carrier designs to HMS Hood, an un-modernised British battlecruiser that blew up in May 1941 with the loss of almost two thousand souls engaging the German battleship Bismarck. She was the wrong ship in the wrong place at the wrong time. Part of her weakness was her lack of armoured protection. The two British super-carriers will be 65,000 tons each because that is the minimum size needed to effectively operate the F-35 Lightning IIs they are being built for. However, to save costs they will have nothing like the protection of their American equivalents – a typically British compromise. Will a future British Prime Minister risk such valuable pieces of floating British real estate off some foreign shore given the nature of emerging anti-ship missile technology? It is a moot point.

It was Mr Peston who broke the news of the banker’s balls-up which has so blighted all our lives and so damaged British national strategy. Mr Peston is of course the BBC’s Business Editor so it is not surprising that he sees everything in terms of cost and nothing in terms of value, particularly strategic value.  However, it is now time to look to the future beyond the mess created by the terminally selfish. Moreover, at least somebody needs a job in Britain and building such carriers offers just that. 

Above all, Britain needs a navy worthy of the name.  The carriers are about the coming age and will be paid for as such. They may indeed look today like floating versions of the Millennium Dome – Tony Blair’s London folly - but in twenty years time they will be emblematic of a new Royal Navy.

Every now and then even the Brits must take the long view. Now that would be a nice change. The carriers are about the future; Britain’s level of strategic ambition in it, influence over it and for such a goal the branding of power matters.

Pocket superpower or super-Belgium? That is the choice implicit for Britain in the carrier-debate.

Julian Lindley-French

Wednesday, 27 April 2011

Appeasing and Fighting Al Qaeda: Lessons from Fantasy Island?

This is a difficult piece to write for it takes me into very troubled waters. And yet it is the duty of the analyst to sail such waters. I am ashamed. Wikileaks confirmed yesterday that my country was the strongest recruiting ground for Al Qaeda outside the Middle East. Britain is also the main source of funding for the Taliban. No wonder French Intelligence call my country’s capital – Londonistan. How has this been allowed to happen and what must be done about it?

I am also angry. I am angry that over the past decade we have sent thousands of British troops to the foothills of the Hindu Kush to keep Islamism at ‘strategic distance’ and yet at the same time radical Imams have been allowed into Britain behind the backs of our soldiers to radicalise Muslim youth – both British and immigrant. It is self-evident that there has been a profound disconnect between security policy and immigration and asylum policy that is verging on the insane. As a result Britain has been simultaneously fighting and appeasing Al Qaeda.

One only has to visit official Britain to understand how this happens. Shot through with political correctness, poorly led by politicians too weak and lame to deal with this reality, with complacent security services and a Human Rights Act that seemingly places the well-being of aggressive minorities above the well-being of law-abiding majorities such contradictions have been allowed to flourish. The result; this refusal to face facts has left Britain today a far more divided and insecure place than it was in 2001. It is an insecurity that is now threatening key allies – such as the United States and France.

It would be easy for me to blame the Labour Government that ‘served’ for some thirteen years but these failings go back a long time. Indeed, one of the profound ironies of the past years has been the implicit alliance between right-wing businessmen in search of cheap labour and left-wing ideologues in search of a ‘new’ Britain. Dissent over policy has been suppressed by accusations of racism with the result that only the lunatic right have ventured into this dangerous swamp. The result; the mainstream has been forced to look the other way as cities have deteriorated into ethnic ghettoes and the white middle class has fled to the hills.

Former Labour Home Secretary (Interior Minister) David Blunkett said last night that he was still not sure that official Britain really understands the nature of the threat posed by Al Qaeda in Britain – either to the British people or partners. He should know. Look at the provenance of the various shoe-bombers, look at the 7/7 bombing of London.

Government is beginning to take this threat seriously but riven by ideological divisions between Conservative and Liberal Democrats it is too little, too late. Indeed, too often ‘action’ has meant simply trying to mask the nature of the threat from the British people for the sake of virtually non-existent ‘social cohesion’.

So, what is to be done? First, the debate over the security impact of mass immigration and asylum must be confronted. To that end, the debate must be taken back from the far right and much greater efforts made to properly understand how so-called ‘preachers of hate’, such as Abu Hamsa and Abu Qatada, exploit vulnerable members of British society.

Second, the Human Rights Act must be urgently reviewed. The HRA has been used time and again by extremists and criminals in a way that was never envisaged. It is now nigh on impossible to deport such people once they are in Britain with the result that my country is too often a safe haven for enemies of our very existence. The Government promised a new British Bill of Rights and then kicked it into the long grass of a commission. Another bullet dodged.

Third, properly confront the failings of multiculturalism. Multiculturalism is lazy government. As I have seen in my own home town Sheffield, communities live parallel lives with completely separate belief systems. Ten years on from the race riots in Lancashire little progress has been made to break down barriers and this has only served to deepen the pools of hopelessness and despair that Al Qaeda exploits. Over the same period large numbers of immigrants have arrived from the Punjab and Bangladesh which are some of the poorest and most conservative regions in south Asia. Any yet very little has been done to integrate them into what must be a bewildering Western society. It goes without saying that the vast majority are decent people, seeking a better life. As an immigrant myself I know how difficult life can be and I live in an advanced Western society. However, pretending that the importation of large numbers of people from such places at a time of radical unrest has no impact on security is precisely the kind of delusional behaviour that has brought Britain to this sorry place. Prime Minister Cameron promised action. He often promises action – before elections.

Fourth, we have the society we have and we must make it work better. Discrimination is rife in Britain. Large numbers of second and third generation Britons are routinely discriminated against and not accorded the respect that is their due. I do not believe that diversity is strength, but I do believe that if one invests in people they can feel comfortable with a whole range of identities. Respect people and they respond. That is the future. To that end, Government must seek real partnership with communities to de-radicalise youth with a much more systematic approach than was offered through the PREVENT programme. The great institutions of state have a critical role to play in this regard. At the same time, the Government must take much firmer steps (and openly so) to insist that institutions vulnerable to extremist infiltration act, not least the terminally politically correct British universities.

Finally, aggressively educate society as to the essential contribution of Muslims to Britain. The massive majority of British Muslims want what is best for Britain. That is why they or their forebears came to Britain. The current climate of fear and mistrust at community level simply starves decent people of the chance to communicate across communities. Mosques are unfairly and routinely seen by the rest of the population as recruiting grounds for terrorists. Nothing could be further from the truth.

For too long the British elite have lectured others on how to deal with the challenges posed by radical Islam and yet at home they have hoped the problem would simply disappear. By engaging Islamism abroad but doing far too little at home Britain has become a threat to itself and to others. This is all the more galling as successive British leaders have told a disbelieving British public that Britain is an example to the world, as others have laughed at us.

One cannot both appease and fight Al Qaeda at one and the same time.  Surely, that is a lesson from Fantasy Island that is all too clear.
Julian Lindley-French