“How
can you govern a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?”
Charles
de Gaulle
Steyning, England. 9 May.
What will a Macron presidency mean for France, for Europe, and Brexit Britain? It
seems strangely appropriate to be writing about the victory of French President-elect
Emmanuel Macron not far from Hastings. Listening to some of Macron’s fierce
anti-British rhetoric during the campaign one could be forgiven for thinking
Britain might face another battle thereof; 1066 and all that! Still, a bit of
‘ros-bif frapping’ during an election campign in France, works just as well as
frog-bashing over here. Theresa May is hard at it as well.
It is certainly a relief
that Macron has seen off the challenge of the Rightist Marine Le Pen. She would
have been Donald J. with ‘belles’ on if she had taken the Elys
e. Thankfully, by winning some 66% of the
second round vote Macron now has a decisive if strangely lacklustre majority
behind him. He will need it. The challenges France faces are immense. The
country is mired in debt, its banking system creaky at best, and it as divided
a country as Britain is these days, if not more so.
If Macron means what he
said about reforming France expect early fireworks. Le Pen accused Macron of
being the harbinger of ‘globalisation
sauvage’ beloved of ‘les méchants
anglossaxons’. There is little evidence this alumnus of the ultra-elite ENA
is that, but he does seem to recognise that if France is to be made fit for
twenty-first century competitive purpose wholesale reform of the labour and
finance markets must take place. This course will put him in direct
confrontation (and early) with powerful vested interests, such as the union
conglomerate the CGT and the other big four union conglomerates. In the past
French presidents have repeatedly backed down in the face of their wrecking
opposition to reform. It will be clear very quickly if Macron is really
prepared to take on France’s deeply-rooted anti-reform blocs.
Another stern political
challenge will be getting much of his programme through the ‘assemblée nationale’. Given the very putative nature of ‘en marche’ the political party he
created means it is unlikely to form a majority after June’s parliamentary
elections. Ironically, the most likely allies for Macron could be the centre-right
in the form of ‘les républicains’, at
least younger Generation X members of parliament. The Old Guard on the
centre-right, such as Juppé and Sarkozy despise Macron for denying them power
which they had thought theirs by right after the disastrous Hollande
years. Perhaps Macron might seek to
fashion some form of German-style Grosse
Koalition or GroKo. It will not
be easy.
Macron also wears his
pro-EU leanings on his sleeve and has called for the rebirth of the
Franco-German axis as the driving force behind deeper political and monetary
union. He has also called for the EU to be ‘reformed’, but just how and in what
direction is as yet unclear. Clearly, Macron will need to forge a substantive position
on the EU and quickly, precisely because France is far more central to the
Union than Britain ever was. The test could come relatively quickly. With the
loss of Britain’s net 12% contribution to the EU budget would Macron really be
willing to reduce the burden on the urban taxpayer of the Common Agricultural
Policy (CAP) subsidy? The CAP continues
to swallow 40% of the EU budget but French politicians and farmers view the CAP
in much the same way the British Left see the National Health Service; an
ancient holy relic that is above and beyond reform.
One thing Macron will
have to resolve and quickly is the balance to be struck between further
Europeanisation, globalisation and modernisation for and in France. After all, Macron will not modernise France
through the EU, which is simply protectionism writ large. One reason Brussels
is so angry about Brexit is because the EU needs British taxpayer’s money for as
long as possible to put off the ‘evil’ day when the consequence of the EU’s own
inertia and the dark reality it hides finally bites.
In his dealings with
Britain Macron will have to a choice to make – friend or foe? He will not be allowed
to be a perfidious both. His campaign rhetoric on Brexit was aggressive to say
the least, calling the vote to leave a ‘crime’ (so much for democracy). He is
also calling for a ‘Europe First’ policy that would see British firms excluded
from lucrative EU-backed large public projects, whilst expecting Britain to
allow French firms to be able to compete for such projects in the UK. Critically, he threatens to scrap the 2003 Le
Touquet agreement which would in effect mean France passing onto Britain large
numbers of illegal immigrants that should have been processed in France.
Macron will need to be
careful because Britain is a top five world economic and military power, and a UN
Security Council Permanent Member. If he seeks to burnish his pro-EU
credentials by leading the charge toward a punishment Brexit he can say goodbye
to the Franco-British strategic partnership nd he would damage NATO. It is obvious speaking to people
round here the British people are up for a fight with echoes of 1940 clearly
part of the mood. Britain and France need each other and Macron would be well
advised to seek to act as friend of both London and Brussels so that a deal can
be fashioned.
However, his greatest
challenge will be to simply keep a Le Pen out of power in 2022.With the
population of the Middle East and North Africa slated to double by 2050. And, with
little suggestion that governance, economies of hope will improve to match such
a population explosion France will be in the front-line of the coming immigration
invasion. Emmanuel Macron, slayer of populism? Forget it!
Macron is young (39),
acutely ambitious, and clearly very able. He will need to be given the agenda
he inherits. Reforming France, the EU,
and maintaining good relations with Britain whilst trying to manage immigration,
combat populism, and maintain the standing of Paris in Europe and the world is
a Herculean task.
Macro-France or micro-France? Bon chance, M. Macron!
Julian Lindley-French
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