“We are all inclined to judge ourselves by our ideals;
others by their acts”.
Sir
Harold Nicholson
Alphen, Netherlands.
October 16. For many years I have had the honour of attending the annual Riga
Conference. It is quite simply superb. And, every year I pose the Riga Test:
can the good citizens of Riga sleep more safely in their beds than last
year. Naturally, given the location of
Latvia the big issue is Russia, the now constant coercion against the Baltic
States, and the threat posed by Moscow’s powerful armed forces just over the
border. This year the test also concerns
Russia, but not directly. Rather, it concerns the implications of the latest Kurdish-Turkish
war for the people of Riga.
Two conversations struck
home to me at this conference. The first was my interview with an old friend
and colleague, Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, the former US Ambassador to
Moscow and Deputy Secretary-General of NATO. You can see the interview on YouTube
at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teTRTxJZYu4
Sandy’s message was clear;
Russia must be managed. However, managing Russia must be seen against the
backdrop of a rapidly changing geopolitical environment driven by the rise of
China, not least in Europe.
My second conversation
took place over breakfast with the former British Foreign and Defence Secretary
Sir Malcolm Rifkind. Malcolm reminded me of a 1939 book entitled “Diplomacy”,
which had been written on the eve of war by British diplomat Sir Harold
Nicholson. Nicholson warned there are three types of people that are anathema
to good diplomacy – fanatics, lawyers and missionaries.
Russia’s success in the
Middle East has been driven precisely by the combination of Trumpian
fanaticism, European legalism and irrelevant evangelism. It might sound strange to accuse President
Trump of fanaticism, but a fanatic is someone so committed to his/her own cause
that they will act at whatever cost to themselves and their cause. This latest Middle
Eastern war was triggered by President Trump’s arbitrary decision to pull US forces
out of North-West Syria thus ending their role as a buffer between Turks and
Kurds. The consequent strategic vacuum is now being filled by the forces of
Erdogan and Putin.
Now, I am not one of the
European Chicken Little Brigade when it comes to President Trump. My first
instinct is to respect the US Commander-in-Chief. However, it is increasingly hard
to respect an increasingly capricious US president the actions of whom seem
overwhelmingly driven by his need to assuage his domestic political base, and
at any geopolitical cost to America’s standing.
However, my main concern
for Rigans rests not with Americans, but fellow Europeans. America’s withdrawal
from Syria has revealed once and for all the complete absence of European
strategic responsibility and any meaningful capability even in a region the
fate of which has dire implications for all Europeans. Why? One need look no
look no further than an expensive roll of toilet paper called the EU Global Strategy. Listen to the
warbling of EU-funded European think-tanks one would think that the EU is about
to become some proto-superpower. In
reality, the ‘Strategy’ was written by lawyers and missionaries and has just
about enough reach to influence the Brussels Beltway, but little beyond. It also says everything about the essential
malaise of European external action – the gulf between values, interests, and
power.
Contrast that with President
Putin. For Putin the only ‘law’ is power, and whilst Europeans talk and
Americans politic, Russia acts. As for President Erdogan, why are Europeans so
surprised he is attacking the Kurds? Indeed, I even predicted this moment in my
2017 book The New Geopolitics of Terror.
Even a cursory glance of Turkish history confirms Erdogan could never tolerate
a Kurdish ‘state’ along Turkey’s southern border out of fear for Ankara’s
eastern provinces. The absurdity of the Trump position is to sacrifice the
Kurds (not for the first time in history) for domestic politics, but also
sacrifice the US relationship with a critical Turkey. This is not US
Realpolitik, this is just plain geopolitical incompetence. Nicholson, who was
born in Tehran at the height of British imperial power, must be spinning in his
grave, not least because Russia is now the referee of ‘rules’ in the region
that it creates, and by which others will now abide.
Europe? It is hard to
describe complete inaction and irrelevance as incompetence. Beyond the usual
wittering the EU has said and done virtually nothing to influence a major
crisis on its doorstep. A few European
powers have now moved to stop arms sales to Turkey – a NATO ally – which could
well be met by Ankara re-opening the route for refugees to enter Europe en
masse. However, to paraphrase Oscar
Wilde, sanctions are simply the last resort of the strategically-incompetent
and politically-inept.
Nicholson’s warning was a
call for power and pragmatism in equal measure. Skilled diplomacy is the art of
balancing the two to ensure the best outcome is not the enemy of the good
outcome. Turkey is a pivotal power for the
defence of Europe, the Kurds, and the Kurdish-led Syrian Defence Force, have
been loyal allies in the struggle against Daesh. Now, more than ever, Europeans
as ‘Europe’ should stand up to demonstrate precisely the strategic culture and
responsibility they keep banging on about by trying to broker a peace. Such a
peace would ease America’s burdens, keep the Russians in check, help keep
Turkey on board, and afford some level of protection to Kurds now forced into
the clutches of Assad. If ever there is to be a point to ‘Europe’ and its place
in the world, it is right now and in that place. As ever, Europeans will
neither agree nor act, beyond the now traditionally desultory.
Can Rigans trust America,
or will they too wake up one day to suffer they have also been sacrificed on
the hard anvil of geopolitics? My sense is they can trust the Americans, but I
am less and less sure. Can Rigans trust
their fellow Europeans? What is there to trust beyond words and a few
under-equipped soldiers? Indeed, what worries me most is not a capricious President
Trump, but a Europe that seems incapable of ever growing up to meet the
challenges and threats its peoples face. For, as Thomas Hobbes once said, “Covenants
without the sword are but words, and of use to no man”. Europe?
Julian Lindley-French
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