The Alphen Group: Ukraine Assessment.

 

May 3^rd, 2024

www.thealphengroup.com

“Plan A is not working; Plan B is needed”.

The Russo-Ukraine War is at a tipping point and the determining factor will be the extent to which Western powers are willing or not to support Ukraine in its war aim of regaining the land seized by Russia since 2014. In that context, four issues were considered: the current situation on the ground; Russia’s campaign aims in 2024; and the possible strategic, political, and operational impact of additional security aid packages to Ukraine, and the NATO 75 Washington summit. The aim of Russian strategy is to exhaust the Ukrainians politically and militarily by exploiting what Moscow believes is its greater strategic depth of people and power.  Therefore, West needs to re-state its support for Ukraine to demonstrate to Moscow strategic clarity, political determination, the capability and capacity to prevail, and strategic patience, none of which are immediately apparent.  

At the grand strategic level any political progress in Ukraine is only likely to result from direct talks about the wider geopolitics of European security between Russia and the West, more precisely between Russia and the US. There is uncertainty about the level and consistency of American support for Ukraine and, despite increased financial and materiel support for Ukraine the latest package could also be the last, particularly if Trump returns to the White House.  The impact on Ukraine of the loss of American support would be critical given the level of war fatigue in Ukraine and Zelensky’s increasingly precarious political position.  

At the military-strategic level, Ukraine is in a difficult position on the ground but the belief in London is that in “3 to 6 months the pendulum will swing back”.  Whilst Russian forces have suffered enormous losses Moscow has adapted its strategy to limit losses to its air power in particular by operating from within its territory using ‘stand-off’ attacks to destroy both Ukraine’s will and capacity to fight.  To counter the Russia strategy there is some evidence the US is supplying long-range ATACMS to Ukraine thus enabling Kyiv to target oil and other Russian infrastructure deep inside Russia vital to the war effort.

At the operational level Ukraine urgently needs more offensive power. Ukraine has switched to a defensive posture whilst it awaits the arrival of more Western war stocks.  For example, Russia currently enjoys a superiority of 15:1 in critical 155mm artillery shells and has adapted drones to attack Western supplied armour to some effect.  Moscow is also making effective use of electronic warfare which only Western forces could counter.  Kyiv also needs to reconsider its operational art and science. The 2023 Ukrainian summer offensive failed not simply because it lacked the military weight to breakthrough Russian defensive lines, but because Kyiv’s forces did not employ advanced Western equipment to best advantage.

If a ‘Plan B’ is to forge a position of relative Western strength in this proxy systemic Russo-Ukraine War the West will need to demonstrate to Moscow that it is Ukraine’s strategic depth. This will only be achieved if Ukrainians can rely on a secure supply of resources and money, the Western defence technological and industrial base is properly mobilised, there is unity of purpose and effort across the Euro-Atlantic community, and the West ceases to self-deter. Moscow’s war in Ukraine has come at an enormous price for Russia by “undoing the legacy of Peter the Great and Stalin” through the loss of influence in the Baltic Sea and Nordic Europe.  However, for Putin the war in Ukraine is existential for him and his regime and the West must understand that.  The West must urgently answer several questions, with the Quad powers to the fore.  What does the ‘West’ want? What price is the West still prepared to pay?  What happens to NATO if Putin can declare victory in Ukraine? Above all, what is Plan B and who should make it? 

There is a choice now to be made between making peace with Russia now at Ukraine’s expense in the hope it “would close a chapter and make Europe more secure”, or only making peace with Russia when Ukraine has been successfully defended and in so doing send a clear message to the world about the West’s collective determination to resist such aggression.

Julian Lindley-French, Chairman, The Alphen Group