Mansion House, City of London, September 8, 2025
Strategic Takeaways
Lord Peach, thank you. I am not of this parish, the City of London, and I am not a member of the Defence, Security and Resilience Development board, but I am fully aligned with what I am hearing here today: you here from the banking and financial sector are not neutral in the struggle between the Global Free and Global Autocracy. If you want the Global Free to prevail you must be active proponents of a just and legitimate peace both here in Europe and beyond. That is the price of doing business.
This is a serious moment. My challenge to you thus is this: Is a grand coalition of the Global Free Nations and Good Citizen Banks possible to close the financial gap between necessary defence strategic ambition and public debt? It had better be…and fast! As my friend James Holland said earlier history does not repeat itself, but patterns of behaviour and power do. We may not be in 1933 yet, but we could be in 1932.
The Master Takeaway: So, and in that light, if you take nothing away from today at least take this: In the wake of the Banking and Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2010 and COVID We, the Global Free are trapped in a dangerous debt driven paradox that is putting social security and national security in direct competition for limited funds. The only way politically to afford the defence needed to preserve the peace would be during a war, but then it is too late. The moment deterrence has failed the peace you take for granted has been lost…and with it your ability to do business.
The result? Fantasy defence spending plans in which the requisite ends cannot possibly be met with the available means however creative the ways across defence, security and resilience. Our free nations need you to help fund the gap because if we cannot protect our people we cannot defend the space you need to remain profitable. Worse, many of us now live in hollowed out “Potemkin” states due to the two great systemic debt driving crises of the last twenty years. Our adversaries understand that and have systematically undertaken strategic audits of our vulnerabilities across the social, information and security spectrum that they exploit daily. Take the United Kingdom – it is under industrial levels of state-led cyber attack every day. Your place and way of doing business is under threat – be warned!
Therefore, the cost of preserving a fragile peace, and how and what must be afforded, at a time when indebtedness is already relatively severe at over 100% GDP for many countries is growing exponentially. There is thus a pressing need for the Global Free, both public and private sectors, to find creative ways to fund security, defence and resilience – which is why I am here today. Many states in free Europe and being crippled by the confluence of the Great Financial Crisis and COVID which is preventing them from acting strategically in the interests of a just peace due to the consequent indebtedness. Worse, it is precisely our indebtedness that encouraging the autocracies to take the kind of risk evident in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait and thus create the conditions for war.
Grand Strategic Takeaway 1 - It is just one of those times. Grand strategy is the generation of immense means in pursuit of global systemic ends which is needed from time to time when global order is challenged. In recent British history there have been several such challengers: Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhelm II, Hitler and Stalin. Xi and Putin? As Russia’s war on Ukraine and last week’s military parade in Beijing demonstrate we are once again facing dictators armed with an historic/nationalistic/opportunistic ‘mission’ to destroy freedom and re-order the world order to their narrow advantage.
Strategic Takeaway 2: America needs help! If you here want a rules-based global order to survive the Global Free must keep America strong where America needs to be strong. To that end, a new out of the box deterrence is needed which does not assume the American Bank of Mom and Dad will always be there. For all their myriad imperfections we the rest of the Global Free decided long ago that the United States was and is the capstone power of freedom. The alternative? The Threat of Decoupling. In the face of engineered multiple and simultaneous global pre-war crises the US is forced to de-couple from wilfully defenceless allies and partners at a time of maximum vulnerability and at a moment of our adversaries’ choosing.
Strategic Takeaway 3 - The Great Financial Arsenal of the Global Free. In this systemic struggle the banking and financial sector the world over must be the. Or, to put it in the language of the City of London – Reinsurance. Deterrence today is about convincing the Dictators that we have the means, as well as the ends and ways to deter them. Again, for you here in this gilded room such support is the minimum price of doing future business. After the great financial shock which precipitated the West’s historic and relative power decline you the banks and great financial houses have a duty to the people in this shared and vital mission.
Strategic Takeaway 4: Sound Financing IS Credible Deterrence. Given the changing character of warfare preserving a just and legitimate demand dynamic credible deterrence in that will require a demonstrable ability by the Global Free to respond across the spectrum of future conflict – hybrid and information war, cyber war and AI-enabled hyperwar. Where to start? End the nonsense of Environmental, Social and Governance ‘rules’ that prevent you from funding everything our legitimate armed forces need to defend you and your business. You are not neutral in this struggle and ESG is little more than implicit support for autocratic efforts to weaken the Global Free.
Strategic Takeaway 6: A Global Bank for Peace. In 1941 Lend-Lease helped London to continue to fight the Nazi war machine but only after Britain’s gold reserves had been exhausted by the “cash and carry” arrangement in place at the time. Imagine the history of Europe had the United States and its financial institutions funded peace and the free nations in Europe in the 1930s. Today, that means systemic private sector support across a labyrinth of critical infrastructures and people, across the expensive ability to fight to effect in the multi-domains of future war (air, sea, land, cyber, space, AI and knowledge), and across the Grand Coalition we need of the Global Free and Able.
The Four ‘Good Citizen’ Missions for Peace
Therefore, in the today’s grand strategic context there are three missions for peace a ‘Good Citizen’ financial sector can play:
Mission 1: Enable Sound Planning: Eisenhower once said – plans are nothing, planning is everything. Take Britain again, as we are all sitting here. If one examines British defence spending between 1900 and 2025 what one observes is a series of massive debt-funded spikes. The reason for this is that it is precisely during times of economic stress that wars happen when free states DO NOT have the money to spend on preserving international peace. Therefore, we the Global Free need to find a way to spread the cost of defence if we are to realise its value. The Global Free nations can only do that with your support. What you have to grip is you have no choice as we are all in this struggle together.
Mission 2: Offer Cheap Loans. There are precedents. Lend Lease, the 1946 Anglo-American Loan and the Marshall Plan were the financial and economic foundations of the Transatlantic Relationship of free nations. All were built on cheap loans over extended periods. Yes, it is all more debt but like US loans to the British they were spread out over extremely long periods and at low rates of return which meant the British could afford to c confront the crisis. Super GILTS?
Mission 3: Debt Offset. The free financial sector could ‘suspend’ current national debt by buying all or some of it to enable European democracies to defend the legal and political system vital to their profitable functioning.
Mission 4: Innovative Defence Investment. Defence is not a dirty word. It is the legitimate right of free peoples to defend themselves in the face of aggression. Imagine if Britain had been unable to afford the 1934 Rearmament Plan in the run-up to World War Two in the wake of the Depression? The war wining Spitfire and Hurricane, the Dowding System, Chain Home Radar, the Bomber-led Expansion Programme, the KGV battleships and Illustrious Class aircraft carriers etc and et al. We again desperately need to unleash the Great Instrument of Power that are commercial banks and investment funds so we can rebuild our legitimate credible defences much depleted due to the Great Financial Crisis and COVID. This can only be done through good citizen innovation and partnership.
Conclusion
Deterrence is to deter, to convince our adversaries that war is not an option in all and any circumstances. European Fighting power that can meet the future force-on-force challenge, AI and all. Societal resilience so that under all and any circumstances we can recover from any shock quickly. Above all, our leaders need to rebuild the political space for strategic leadership with the mindset and resources to prevail. THAT is deterrence because only then will our adversaries understand that no adventure against freedom is worth it. DSRB is not just the future of defence financing it is a future pillar of deterrence.
Let me finish with a December 1940 quote from President Roosevelt:
“Suppose my neighbour’s home catches fire, and I have a length of garden hose four or five hundred feet away. If he can take my garden hose and connect it up with his hydrant, I may help him to put out his fire. Now, what do I do? I don’t say to him before that operation, ‘Neighbour, my garden hose cost me $15; you have to pay me $15 for it. What is the transaction that goes on? I don’t want $15 - I want my garden hose back after the fire is over. All right. If it goes through the fire all right, intact, without any damage to it, he gives it back to me and thanks me very much for the use of it. But suppose it gets smashed up—holes in it—during the fire. We don’t have to have too much formality about it, but I say to him, ‘I was glad to lend you that hose; I see I can’t use it anymore, it’s all smashed up.’ He says, ‘How many feet of it were there?’ I tell him, ‘There were 150 feet of it.’ He says, ‘All right, I will replace it.’ Now if I get a nice garden hose back, I am in pretty good shape.”
The cost of failure? In 1949 British net public debt peaked at 250% of GDP. It was a cost of war from which Britain has never fully recovered. The lesson? The price of peace is far cheaper than the price of war!
The Defence, Security and Resilience Bank is the Good Citizen Bank, the Bank of Peace – a just and legitimate peace. I commend the DSRB to you.
Thank you!
Julian Lindley-French