“The past is another country; they do things
differently there. But men still shoot each other, don’t they?”
L.P. Hartley
November 17th,
2025. Forget Britain’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review (SDR). It is as dead as a
Dodo and takes it place amongst that great Pantheon of British defence fiction –
where Shakespeare meets Liddell Hart.
Nice story though. In its place
is the real Brexit – Britain’s effective abandonment of Europe’s defence. Two-faced politicians in London and their strategically
illiterate advisors like to pretend Britain is going to re-arm, when in fact
they have decided to retreat. At one and
the same time urging NATO to do more, whilst behind closed doors blocking NATO
from the very investments needed for fear of political embarrassment. Yes, I have my sources.
A Tale
of Two Countries
It was the best
of times; it was the worst of times. The result? Britain is the new Germany of
European defence. Regular readers will recall that I used to write regularly for
the International Herald Tribune. Notoriously,
at least in some ‘how much threat can we afford’ circles I once wrote that Germany
that was using World War Two as an excuse not to play its full role in the
defence of Europe. Modern, democratic Germany, I argued, was not Nazi Germany
but a friend, an ally and a model democracy. It was time to step up. In October 2000 I contrasted the bungling Bundeswehr
with Britain’s military machine. Britain,
I said, had been on the D-Day beaches and was still out there. It was at the height of Tony Blair’s Liberal Humanitarianism.
How times change.
Whilst the Merz Government spent 1.63% GDP in 2025 it is committed to spending
3.5% of Germany’s $4.7 trillion economy on defence by 2029. In other words, $164 billion per annum! The Starmer
government? London has promised to
increase British defence expenditure from 2.4% GDP in 2025 to 2.5% GDP in 2027
and possibly 3.5% of its £3.5 trillion GDP by 2035 or $129 billion. Dream on! In
fact, the real figure is far lower because under current planning Britain will
only increase its defence budget by 0.3% GDP by 2034, far below the defence
cost inflation that is ravaging defence expenditure. Worse, whilst the Bundeswehr
will be re-equipped at a cost of €377bn Britain’s hopelessly hollowed out forces
have been ordered to CUT the budget by £2 billion in 2025. Germany’s challenge
is thus defence strategic: how to spend a massive increase both quickly and
wisely. Britain’s defence challenge is as
ever political: how to maintain the defence pretence of increased expenditure whilst
masking the consequences of serial cuts.
A Tale
of Two Brigades
London will
find maintaining defence pretence increasingly hard. Take NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in the
Baltic States. In Lithuania the German
Brigade is set to be equipped with the forces and resources it needs to fulfil
its deterrence and defence mission. Next door in Estonia the British ‘brigade’ is
under-strength and ill-equipped. Worse, Britain’s Estonian ‘brigade’ is not even
a brigade but rather a battalion. According to London securing NATO’s Eastern Flank
can best be served by keeping the bulk of Britain’s contribution to it in
Gloucestershire. The Army is noy alone. The Royal Fleet Auxiliary is vital to
the support of fleet operations has just had one of its few ships condemned as
unfit to sail with the rest not much better.
London’s
defence pretence is moving beyond a joke to a farce that will inevitably lead
to tragedy. The Starmer regime like so
many before it simply wants to get off the world to pay for welfare and make
the false choice of funding social security at the cost of national
security. To mask Britain’s retreat
London hides in its support Ukraine by making its own armed forces weaker and
doing little to make a real difference to a Ukrainian force in crisis.
The
reason? Like so many of the strategic
illiterates who have occupied Downing Street of late Starmer fails to
understand what defence is for. It is not
simply the defence of the realm. It is
to credibly deter enemies and defend the very institutional order Starmer claims
to hold dear by supporting soft power with credible hard power. It is to influence allies as much as deter
enemies. Britain’s defence pretence is
not simply the surrender of British influence it is the retreat of a once proud
power into utter irresponsibility.
The New
Brexit
The bottom
line is this: there can be no stable geoeconomics unless there is stable
geopolitics. Stable geopolitics must be earned not wished for. The message I
hear from ministers and experts all over the Alliance is that Britain is retreating
into a new Brexit. A Brexit not just from the European Union but from the
transatlantic relationship. A Brexit that means the only Special
Relationship of substance is between the US and Germany because the Germans are
now willing to pay for it. As for the Americans
Britain is a write-off. Britain? A shell nation, once at the very heart of NATO,
hunkering down behind its nuclear weapons and saying to Allies and Partners
alike – ‘we don’t care”.
Shame on
you, London. Men still really do shoot each other, Sir Keir!
Julian Lindley-French
