Alphen,
Netherlands. 31 January. On Wednesday
evening I was sitting in the Sky Team business class lounge at Washington’s
Dulles Airport with a senior French colleague and friend waiting for my KLM
flight back to Amsterdam. We had chewed
the cud about a range of matters strategic pertinent to our respective countries. It was a discussion that was just about as
Franco-British as one can get during which he made a comment which for me sums
up the Paris view of their London counterparts.
The
specific issue at hand was Franco-British nuclear co-operation. My point was that as I could not envisage a
scenario in which one country would use nuclear weapons and the other not London and Paris should find a way to co-operate more deeply. Surely, I opined, we could at least alternate
patrols of French and British ballistic missile submarines at times of peace to
reduce wear and tear? British and French
nuclear submarines patrol just about the same bits of sea and have almost
identical targets.
His response
was to say that whenever France had proposed deeper co-operation the British
had backed away. Nothing too French you
might assume in that apart from precisely that – the assumption. To Paris Franco-British co-operation starts
from an assumption that France sets the agenda and it is up to the British to
respond.
For Paris that
is how it should be. It is the job of French negotiators to get as much for France
as is possible in any negotiation. And,
they are very good at it. The real
tragedy is that London lets Paris get away with it. Indeed, during my years living and working in
Paris I saw repeated examples of supine British officials apologising privately
for London’s inability to give France all and everything it wants.
Now, I know
some senior British officials will read this and say that if I was in the room
I would realise how hard they fight for this position or that. That is not my point and in any case I tend
to know what goes on in the room. British
negotiators are master tacticians able and willing to gain or squeeze advantage
from the hopeless positions bequeathed to them by hopeless political masters. London’s
political culture is now so defensive that London invariably surrenders the
strategic high ground to France from the outset.
Since
Britain retreated from the world in the 1960s British ‘strategy’ has been the
search for common ground between the US, French and German position on all and
anything. This has been compounded by Planet
Whitehall which believes Britain should be in the Euro and at the heart of the
EU whatever price Germany and France demand.
The result is that London no longer thinks strategically for itself and
is constantly on the negotiating defensive.
This game
will be played out today at the Franco-British pub lunch. Downing Street spin has it that PR-Meister
Cameron is going to forcefully try to convince President Hollande of the need
for EU reform. However, Cameron has
already said he will support Britain’s EU membership even if France (and more
importantly Germany) says ‘non’, as the Élysee has also already said it will. The warm beer conversation will thus be short. Dave: “I want to reform the EU so that it becomes
more competitive, more democratic and power is handed back to capitals”. Francois, “Non!” Dave, “OK then”.
After the meeting
the Downing Street Press Machine will talk of “substantive discussions” and “real
progress”. Strategy-free Dave, who has
clearly been captured by his euro-friendly officials, will be told by the Mandarins
present that by preventing summit failure he conducted a master-class in
diplomacy. The confusion of strategy, politics
and diplomacy is the very essence of Britain’s contemporary weakness.
In fact,
the French position is also as weak today as at any time since the founding of the
EU. The Franco-German axis is hollow to
the point of empty, France is far more broke than Britain, Merkel and Hollande do not get on and the
prospect of Britain leaving the EU should give London negotiating leverage if
only the people do the negotiating believed in the possibility. Not only do they not believe in Britain leaving
the EU but behind the scenes they are telling the French and others that they will
do all they can to prevent it.
London
should seize what is an historic moment and tell Paris that whilst the future
Franco-British strategic relationship is vital - and it is - Paris must work with London if
France really wants Britain to stay in the EU and help balance Germany. Right now, there is not the slightest
incentive for Paris to do anything other than say ‘non’! Indeed, as far as the French are concerned
Cameron will either cave in (likely) or Labour will win in 2015 (quite possible) and offer to
hand over even more sovereignty to Brussels.
Julian
Lindley-French
