Vienna Airport, Austria
29 May. On June 16, 1858 Abraham Lincoln made a prophetic speech. “A house divided against itself cannot
stand. I believe this government cannot
endure, permanently half-slave, half-free.
I do not expect the Union to be dissolved…but I do expect it will cease
to be divided. It will become all one thing or all the other”. I have taken a few days to consider the
implications of last week’s elections to the European Parliament. Indeed, amidst the exaggerated talk of ‘earthquakes’
and ‘revolutions’ only two votes are of real significance. First, some 70% of
those Europeans who did vote cast their ballot for pro-EU parties. Second, 52% of Britons who voted cast their
ballot for Euro-sceptic or Euro-rejectionist parties. Therefore, there will be more political
integration and the great British reckoning will soon be upon us in which the choice
for the British people will be surrender or leave.
No clear theme emerges
from a close analysis of the voting patterns.
Yes, the Front National made stunning gains in France but the French are
not about to abandon the EU. Yes, AFD, a small German party made a splash but they
are anti-Euro, not anti-EU. Yes, there
were significant gains for various extremists, bigots and zealots across the political
spectrum. However, taken together there
is nothing that could be said to be the basis for a reasoned and reasonable opposition
with the European Parliament save (ironically) for some of the more modern and
grown-up members of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP).
That said the EU is at
a crossroads. However, it is perhaps not the one that much of media is somewhat
hysterically claiming. The
EU political elite is right to claim that much of the opposition is driven by a
lack of economic growth but criticism also goes beyond that to issues of
governance which of course the elite do not want to consider. It is not surprising that they are happy to
look again at policies but not at themselves.
The voting patterns
also reveal a profound split between the relatively few northern and western
European taxpayers who fund Project Europe and those across the rest of Europe
who benefit from such largesse. Given
that these transfers will continue for many years to come such discontent will
also persist. However, it is unlikely to
reach a level where the existence of the Union itself is threatened. Even though such transfers are in effect a
tax on western European growth the EU elite make sure the Eurozone
voter has nowhere else to go.
The EU elite also refuses to acknowledge the economic and social friction caused by huge
numbers of poor eastern and southern Europeans arriving en masse in western
European societies. Wages have been suppressed and cultural frictions have been
generated. Equally, those against free
movement frequently shoot themselves in their collective feet by trying to
paint migrants as a host of barbarians.
From first-hand experience I can confirm such a caricature is not at all
fair. However, to dismiss such concerns
as racism is not just plain wrong but highlights and deepens the profound gap
between the elite and the people the EU has come to represent for millions.
Where the vote really
does matter is in the UK. This reflects not
just the growing gap between Britain and the Eurozone but also a lack of trust
between political leaders and the British people. It is a lack of trust
reinforced by the utter impossibility – political and financial- of the
UK’s current position in the EU.
The bottom line is
this; Britain sends £8.6 billion per year (net) to the EU and gets precious little
back in return. The London political
elite say such transfers give Britain access to the Single Market. However, not only does Germany block the
completion of a Single Market in Services the one area where Britain is strong
but under World Trade Organisation rules the British are in effect paying for
access to what should be free markets.
Indeed, if anything the
mass of EU Regulation makes the Single Market not only less ‘single’ but also
not at all free. Therefore, that £8.6bn per annum is in effect a foreign tax on
the British people and reflects what has been for too long blind faith in the
EU on the part of the London political elite. As the EU and the Eurozone becomes
one and the same thing the British will sooner or later have to face reality;
join the euro or leave the EU.
So, what is going to
happen? First, a mainstream Continental Christian Democrat will become
President of the European Commission in November. Berlin wants that and the
Eurozone is in effect a zollverein
(customs union) built on and for Germany. It will probably not be arch-federalist
Jean-Claude Juncker as that would indeed be red rag to John Bull. Second (and however) the British will become
even more euro-sceptic. The current EU
is just about defensible by the likes of Cameron, Clegg and Miliband. However, as the Eurozone inevitably moves
towards real monetary and political union the gap between the benefits of Britain’s
EU membership and the costs will become even more apparent.
Third, the various new
factions in the European Parliament will spend more time fighting each other
than holding the Commission to account.
Fourth, a hybrid form of political union will emerge as the Commission
in effect becomes Germany’s proxy and continues its efforts to undermine and
eventually replace every other EU member-state as the effective Government of
Europe.
Given that set of
scenarios the likelihood that Cameron can persuade Eurozone governments of the
need to go back to a kind of pre-Maastricht EU built on state-led structural ‘subsidiarity’
is extremely unlikely. Indeed, structural
subsidiarity would not be possible without the scrapping of both the Lisbon
Treaty and the euro and that ain’t going to happen.
As for Europe’s people –
they will continue in their current state; half slaves, half free half served
by the half democracy that the half Parliament of the EU has become. And, when all the brouhaha has died down
elite business in the EU will continue just as elite usual.
Ho hum!
Julian Lindley-French
