Brussels, Belgium. 17
November. Political seismic pressure is
growing inexorably on the EU’s fissured fault-line. The growing tectonic shift reveals itself in
many ways. Indeed, with G20 leaders
warning this week that the Eurozone will soon tip into a third recession in as
many years leaders here in Europe’s bureaucratic capital are beginning to look
nervously over their shoulders at the huddled masses of citizenry they have
failed and continue to fail. However, the
most obvious expression of the coming political tremor is evident in the now
reasonable chance that Britain could leave the EU.
Prior to coming here to
Brussels to chair a panel at this year’s European Security Forum I was in
Porches, Portugal at a superb high-level event organised by the Konrad Adenauer
Stiftung. The purpose of the meeting was
to discuss the many security challenges faced by Europeans and their North
American allies. However, a constant
theme throughout was the Brexit, EU reform, and the growing importance of the British-German
relationship.
Encouragingly, there
was widespread agreement that it would be a disaster for Germany and Europe if
Britain left the EU. There was also some
agreement that the concerns of political principle raised by the British must be
addressed. One senior German even went
as far as to suggest that for the EU to survive it must become more like the
inter-governmental super-alliance the British could live with rather than some
form of hybrid confederation.
There are reasons for
the convergence of interests. As Germany
steadily emerges as Europe’s political leader all the indices suggest Britain
will emerge as Germany’s vital twenty-first century partner in Europe. There will be no British-German axis because
that is not the nature of the relationship but a critical partnership is needed
that will be as important to NATO and the transatlantic relationship as it is
to inner-EU ‘cohesion’. The world-views
of Britain and Germany are in many ways far more closely aligned than much of
the politics would lead one to believe.
Sadly, it is precisely the
politics which separate the two countries and prevents EU reform moving beyond
the merely rhetorical. Britain and
Germany can never seem to get past the first base of mutual trust and
confidence. The domestic narrative in
both countries is still too often based on mutually destructive national
stereotypes. In Germany ‘Britain’ is
still a metaphor for dissident views about the grand European project which remains
central to German concepts of institutionally-embedded German power. In Britain German leadership is still too
often presented as the first steps on the road to a Fourth Reich, which is just
about as far from modern German reality as it is possible to get. And, of
course, every time Berlin indicates any movement towards London Paris whispers
protest quietly in the German elite ear.
Therefore, if a proper partnership is to be established London will have
to face down the shrill, Berlin will have to face down both German critics and
the French, and both countries will need to undertake serious, patient
groundwork.
The first step would be
to take the politics out of the strategy.
To meet that challenge a discreet, high-level working group is needed which addresses the concerns
of both countries and seeks practical, structural solutions to the issues which
are threatening to break the EU apart. Such
an agenda would necessarily include the social consequences of mass migration,
the level of cost to be imposed on the taxpayer’s of the eight member-states
that actually pay for the EU, the balance of powers to be established between
the Eurozone and the non-Eurozone and between the Brussels institutions and EU
member-states, completion of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
and how to prepare Europeans to compete effectively in a hyper-competitive
twenty-first century.
As events have shown
this past week none of the above will be addressed by simply transferring ever
more state power blindly into an ever more distant and inefficient Brussels in the name of ‘more Europe’. Indeed, the very ethos of the Brussels
institutions prevents the pragmatic and collective addressing of such
challenges.
If Britain and Germany
can succeed in addressing such an agenda in partnership and jointly propose
solutions to the rest of the EU then EU reform will be realised and a Brexit averted. More importantly the political paralysis
which is the real cause of Europe’s now perpetual recession will end. However, Britain and Germany should be under
no illusions. Such a political
settlement will require structural change to the EU. That in turn will require a new EU treaty
such are the importance, nature and scale of the challenges Britain and Germany
must together face.
Equally, if such a
political settlement could be achieved it would be the finest monument to the
millions of Europeans who gave their lives in conflict this past century. For the first time in years I have the merest
glance of hope that the EU’s dangerous political fault-line can be fixed. However, Britain and Germany must act, together
and now.
Julian Lindley-French
