"The inflight disintegration of
the aeroplane near the Ukrainian/Russian border was the result of the
detonation of a warhead. The detonation occurred above the left-hand side of
the cockpit. The weapon used was a 9N314M-model warhead carried on the
9M38-series of missiles, as installed on the Buk surface-to-air missile system.
Other scenarios that could have led to the disintegration of the aeroplane
were considered, analysed and excluded."
Dutch Safety Board
Alphen, Netherlands. 14
October. It is not with a certain irony that as the Dutch Safety Board was
releasing its technical report into the destruction of Malaysian Airlines
flight MH 17 I was briefing Air Marshal Sir Christopher Harper and his team at
the International Military Staff at NATO HQ on “The Aims, Method and
Application of Russia’s Ambiguous Foreign, Security and Defence Policy”. The
irony, such as it is, is that Gilze-Rijen airbase where the report was launched,
and where the remains of the doomed airliner rest, is right next door to where
I live.
Some seven hundred pages
long and divided into six volumes the report is the product of a seven country,
fifteen month investigation and addresses several key technical questions
concerning the destruction of the Boeing 777 en route from Amsterdam to Kuala
Lumpur. The questions can be thus summarised: the exact sequence of
destruction; the suffering if any of the passengers and crew prior to death; and
the likely launch site of the missile.
However, the report does not apportion blame for the massacre as a
parallel criminal investigation is underway.
The main finding is that
at 1620 hours local on the afternoon of 17 July, 2014 193 Dutch citizens, 43
Malaysians, 27 Australians, 12 Indonesians, 10 Britons, 4 Germans, 4 Belgians,
3 Philippine citizens, 1 Canadian and 1 New Zealander were murdered by a
Russian-built Buk 9M38 series anti-aircraft missile which detonated some 1
metre above and to left of the aircraft’s cockpit. The three crew on the flight
deck were killed instantly. However, the report suggests that at least some
passengers to the rear of the aircraft were not killed by the explosive
decompression caused when the forward section of the plane detached from the
main fuselage due to the force of the warhead’s detonation and the impact of
many thousands of shaped steel fragments from the Buk’s warhead. Indeed, the report
suggests that some passengers may have survived up to ninety seconds before
they became unconscious and died.
The report also states
that the missile was launched from an almost two hundred square kilometre area
south of the town of Snizhne, then controlled by separatists supported by Moscow.
Whilst the report implies blame rests with Moscow and the separatists it arms,
Kiev is not exonerated. Indeed, the
report is firm in its condemnation of Ukrainian authorities for not closing the
air space over the conflict zone prior to the disaster. Indeed,
a further one hundred and sixty civilian aircraft flew over the area the same
day before the air space was closed after MH17 crashed.
Upon release of the
report Russian authorities moved swiftly to discredit it. Moscow asserted that
the missile in question was not the 9N314M variant but an older version,
implying that the missile that shot MH17 down could have been fired by the
Ukrainians. Moscow also contested the area from which the missile was fired suggesting
a much larger area than the report, again implying the Ukrainians could have
been responsible.
Thus, a tragedy high
above Ukraine involving the nationals of ten nations is still being compounded
by a Moscow that simply refuses to come clean. Well-informed sources with whom
I have had contact over the past few weeks have confirmed to me from where the
missile was launched. As time passes the
now incontrovertible evidence will mount. Therefore, it would do Russia credit and
give the relatives of the victims some sense of justice if Moscow simply admitted
that the downing of MH17 was a terrible tragedy, resulting from a series of
errors, misconceptions and mistakes on the part of poorly-trained Ukrainian
separatists recently-returned from a training camp in southern Russia, and
their GRU (Russian military intelligence) handlers.
The tragic mistake that is
the MH17 disaster was compounded by the inability of the radar tracking system
to identify the transponder on MH17 that would have confirmed the civilian identity
of the airliner. Sadly, at the time of launch the main command and radar
trailer was not attached to the launch vehicle. Consequently, those responsible thought
initially that they had shot down a Ukrainian AN-26 military transport
aircraft. Although a Boeing 777 is far larger than an AN-26 the radar signature
on the small auxiliary radar on the Buk launcher would not have afforded the
operator the ability to distinguish between the two aircraft at a height of
some 33,000 feet (10,000 metres).
There are two further
ironies that echo from that terrible day. Ninety of the victims came from Noord
Brabant where I live. Indeed, my wife lost a colleague at the University of
Tilburg, together with his wife and two children. Moreover, I was at Amsterdam
Schiphol Airport that day and quite probably walked past some of the victims
who just a few hours later were blown out of the sky by a Russian missile.
Russia did not intend for
this to happen but its recklessness created the circumstances in which this
massacre could happen. One of my many reflections from MH17 was the inspiring class and dignity shown by the Dutch nation and people in the aftermath of the disaster. It is time for Moscow to show some class and dignity and not just honour the victims of MH17, but all the victims of the
conflict in Ukraine, on both sides. Therefore, Russia must sit down within the Minsk framework and Normandy
format to resolve grievances peacefully...and apologise.
In honour of the crew and
passengers lost on Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17, 17 July 2014.
Julian Lindley-French
