Paper Leviathans: Lawfare does not stop
Warfare!
“Covenants with the sword are but
words and of no use to any man”.
Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan
February 14th. There is nothing so galling as to listen to people who have told me I am wrong for so long suddenly popping up in the media to say they knew what was coming. Or, to put it another way, I was right all along. Two questions. Why are politicians so stupid? Will Trump use tariffs to force Europeans to increase defence expenditure?
The answer to the first question is that they
are not stupid. Take Britain’s Starmer government. One could be forgiven for
thinking that Downing Street is staffed with ideological twelve-year old
‘Special Advisors’ (SPADS) given the nonsense that comes out of it. The latest
‘wheeze’ is that Britain has to give away the Chagos Islands to China puppet
Mauritius because the International Telecommunications Union might rule against
Britain and that such a ruling might thus put broad spectrum military
communications at ‘legal risk’. You really cannot make this stuff up.
Yes, Starmer has surrounded himself with
unworldly left-wing lawyers such as Lord Hermer, who fellow Labour man Lord
Glasman this week called the epitome of the arrogant progressive fool.
That is not the real issue. The hard truth is that Britain and other
major western European powers have so neglected their armed forces over so many
years they cannot afford to recapitalise them. British defence chiefs
this week warned Starmer that an increase to 2.5% GDP on defence "would
not even touch the sides", partly because the cost of the nuclear
deterrent means Britain only spends 1.5% GDP on the NATO-usable
conventional force. So, Starmer is hiding behind the fantasy that
soft power and lawfare can replace hard power and defence as a protection
against high-end warfare. To mix my metaphors they suggest a Paper
Leviathan can replace American military power because Europeans cannot defend
themselves. Such self-delusion will be front and centre in Britain’s
forthcoming Strategic Pretence Review.
The hard truth is that Starmer, Scholz and the
ever more diminutive Macron and the indebted nations they lead cannot square
the financial circle between social security, domestic security and national
security even though they and their fellow members of the political class are
responsible for imposing ever greater risk on the citizens they are meant to
lead. Only the Poles and other Central Europeans get Europe’s new and very
dangerous reality. Given what is likely to be imposed on Ukraine by Trump this
is a tragedy about to get distinctly Greek. Like it or not, Europeans are
going to have to defend Europeans by Trump, who has told Europeans they cannot
rely on the Americans for their defence. ‘Der’, I think the SPADs might say if
they actually understood how the real world works.
Will Trump use tariffs to force Europeans to
increase defence expenditure? Yes, in a word. At the NATO Hague Summit in
June the Americans will likely do the following. First, talk about the
need to spend 5% GDP on defence as part of a negotiating ploy.
Second, emphasise how much Europeans spend on
defence using American (not NATO) definitions of defence expenditure. Third,
reject the idea that Europeans will further increase defence expenditure to
2.5% or 3% (absolute maximum) “but”, to use the British trick, “only when
economic circumstances permit”. Fourth, link tariffs to defence expenditure and
offer tariff relief to those Europeans who commit immediately to spending more
than 3% GDP on defence with a sliding scale thereafter for those who spend
more.
Finally, they
will put real pressure on Britain, France and Germany who spend some 70% of
European defence expenditure and, critically, 90% of defence research and
technology investment. They will also demand access for US companies as part of
the ‘defence tariffs’ deal. NATO? Expect the Americans to call for a
strategic audit to see how Europeans can get more bang for their existing buck
and match what they say they are going to deliver with what they actually
deliver. They will also demand accelerated fielding time-limits for new
equipment will be vital with buying American off the shelf another way to, buy,
tariff relief.
The irony is this: for decades the Americans have been Europe’s defence Leviathan but they cannot and will not fund such a role any longer. China’s rise makes it impossible. So, Europeans, no more empty words and no more soft power as real power. Above all, no more Paper Leviathans. Time to step up!
Julian Lindley-French
