Paper Leviathans: Lawfare does not stop Warfare!

“Covenants with the sword are but words and of no use to any man”.

Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan

 February 14^th. There is nothing so galling as to listen to people who have told me I am wrong for so long suddenly popping up in the media to say they knew what was coming. Or, to put it another way, I was right all along. Two questions. Why are politicians so stupid? Will Trump use tariffs to force Europeans to increase defence expenditure?

The answer to the first question is that they are not stupid. Take Britain’s Starmer government. One could be forgiven for thinking that Downing Street is staffed with ideological twelve-year old ‘Special Advisors’ (SPADS) given the nonsense that comes out of it. The latest ‘wheeze’ is that Britain has to give away the Chagos Islands to China puppet Mauritius because the International Telecommunications Union might rule against Britain and that such a ruling might thus put broad spectrum military communications at ‘legal risk’.  You really cannot make this stuff up.

Yes, Starmer has surrounded himself with unworldly left-wing lawyers such as Lord Hermer, who fellow Labour man Lord Glasman this week called the epitome of the arrogant progressive fool.  That is not the real issue.  The hard truth is that Britain and other major western European powers have so neglected their armed forces over so many years they cannot afford to recapitalise them.  British defence chiefs this week warned Starmer that an increase to 2.5% GDP on defence "would not even touch the sides", partly because the cost of the nuclear deterrent means Britain only spends 1.5% GDP on the NATO-usable conventional force.   So, Starmer is hiding behind the fantasy that soft power and lawfare can replace hard power and defence as a protection against high-end warfare.  To mix my metaphors they suggest a Paper Leviathan can replace American military power because Europeans cannot defend themselves.  Such self-delusion will be front and centre in Britain’s forthcoming Strategic Pretence Review.   

The hard truth is that Starmer, Scholz and the ever more diminutive Macron and the indebted nations they lead cannot square the financial circle between social security, domestic security and national security even though they and their fellow members of the political class are responsible for imposing ever greater risk on the citizens they are meant to lead. Only the Poles and other Central Europeans get Europe’s new and very dangerous reality. Given what is likely to be imposed on Ukraine by Trump this is a tragedy about to get distinctly Greek.  Like it or not, Europeans are going to have to defend Europeans by Trump, who has told Europeans they cannot rely on the Americans for their defence. ‘Der’, I think the SPADs might say if they actually understood how the real world works.

Will Trump use tariffs to force Europeans to increase defence expenditure? Yes, in a word.  At the NATO Hague Summit in June the Americans will likely do the following.  First, talk about the need to spend 5% GDP on defence as part of a negotiating ploy. Second, emphasise how much Europeans spend on defence using American (not NATO) definitions of defence expenditure. Third, reject the idea that Europeans will further increase defence expenditure to 2.5% or 3% (absolute maximum) “but”, to use the British trick, “only when economic circumstances permit”. Fourth, link tariffs to defence expenditure and offer tariff relief to those Europeans who commit immediately to spending more than 3% GDP on defence with a sliding scale thereafter for those who spend more.

Finally, they will put real pressure on Britain, France and Germany who spend some 70% of European defence expenditure and, critically, 90% of defence research and technology investment. They will also demand access for US companies as part of the ‘defence tariffs’ deal. NATO?  Expect the Americans to call for a strategic audit to see how Europeans can get more bang for their existing buck and match what they say they are going to deliver with what they actually deliver. They will also demand accelerated fielding time-limits for new equipment will be vital with buying American off the shelf another way to, buy, tariff relief.

The irony is this: for decades the Americans have been Europe’s defence Leviathan but they cannot and will not fund such a role any longer.  China’s rise makes it impossible. So, Europeans, no more empty words and no more soft power as real power. Above all, no more Paper Leviathans.  Time to step up!

Julian Lindley-French