“European militaries will need (at the very least) to undertake
three security and defence roles, possibly simultaneously. First, to deter Russia
and if needs be defend NATO and the EU from an armed Russian incursion. Second,
to help stabilise states and regions in chaos, which in turn threatens European
security. Third, to ensure and assure interoperability with the US future force”.
Report on the high-level conference The Future of European Militaries, Wilton Park, 25-27 September,
2017
Download my conference report at:
Alphen,
Netherlands. 4 December. My reports are
rather liked the ill-famed urban legend about London busses of old. You wait for
ages for one and then four come along at the same time. For those of us schooled many years ago by waiting
in the bloody rain for the dreaded ‘216’ non-bus service this story is more
than legend. It is where soggy characters were formed and drenched backbones
stiffened. Indeed, there were times after a particularly long wait I wondered
if the bloody bus itself was mere legend.
A month ago
you had my paper co-written with Allen, Breedlove and Zambellas on Future War NATO (https://www.globsec.org/publications/future-war-nato-hybrid-war-hyper-war-via-cyber-war/).
Three weeks ago you had my report for the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Brexit and the Shifting Pillars of NATO
(http://www.cgai.ca/brexit_and_the_shifting_pillars_of_nato).
Last week you had the entire opus of the GLOBSEC
NATO Adaptation Initiative Final Report plus all supporting papers (https://www.globsec.org/publications/one-alliance-future-tasks-adapted-alliance/).
Of course, they are all brilliant and particularly reasonably-priced – they
cost nowt! Today, for your delight and
delectation, I offer you my latest scribbling my Wilton Park report entitled The Future of European Militaries. You
lucky, lucky people. And you thought Christmas was still weeks away?
First, my
thanks. The report emerges from a great
conference held at the Foreign and Commonwealth Agency Wilton Park deep in the
beautiful Sussex countryside between 25th and 27th
September. My dear friend, Wilton Park
Programme Director Dr Robert Grant and I had the pleasure of co-chairing the conference
with me acting as Scribbler-in-Chief or Rapporteur. My thanks go also to the
staff at Wilton Park who do such a fantastic job looking after the conference
delegates. My good friend Dr Holger Mey at Airbus, and Cdr Jeroen de Jonge at the
Dutch scientific research company TNO stumped up much of the sponsorship for
the conference, along with the UK Ministry of Defence (thank you chaps!), and
my old friend Dr Jeff Larsen at the NATO Defence College in Rome.
So, what,
after all the necessary formalities, did we actually conclude about the future
of European militaries, other than it would be a very good idea if they had a
future, and that said future was a together future? The conference focused on six themes: force
structure, threat and response, the implications of Brexit for European
security and defence, technology and future war, institutional and command
relationships, and the future of European militaries.
The
conference also endeavoured to answer pivotal questions that the leaders of
European states need to answer right now. What will be the centre of gravity of
European forces in the twenty-first century? Should a European future force be
focused on the warfighting high-end of the conflict spectrum, or the medium to
low end? What balance between force mass and force manoeuvre should European militaries
aspire to? Is there sufficient consensus among, and between Europeans to fashion
what would look like a European force credible across the conflict spectrum?
The
conference concluded that if those questions are to be answered positively then
European militaries will need to “embrace broad spectrum innovation” that
combines technologies, skills and knowledge into an affordable, but necessarily
radical future force concept”.
Key findings (inter alia) from the conference were:
· European defence planning must be able to satisfy national
requirements, enable pan-European cooperation, and ensure interoperability with
US, Canadian and other forces.
· Credible deterrence and defence rest on the twin pillars of military
capabilities and capacity.
· The European command and control (C2) structure needs to be
sufficiently robust to enable Europeans to be force providers, command European
operations, and organise European militaries into a far more coherent and
consistent force.
· No single European country can any longer afford complete
strategic autonomy.
· Smaller European states should be organised into EU and NATO compatible
groupings. PESCO can help with the development of such groupings.
· The NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) should act as the “interoperability
pivot” by promoting “enhanced transatlantic interoperability”.
· Procurement and acquisition must be re-established on new, common
and shared requirements that underpin national, EU and NATO defence industrial
policy.
· Acquisition and innovation cycles must be accelerated.
· NATO and the European Defence Agency (EDA) must harmonise their
respective efforts to operationalise innovation and to ensure security of
supply and re-supply.
· NATO and the EU must be far better able to talk to each other at
all levels, and during all stages of a crisis.
· The US needs to be clearer about the future strategic partnership it
seeks with its European allies.
· Europeans must better understand the role of force across the
conflict spectrum from hybrid war to cyber war to hyper war.
· NATO needs more forces throughout the command structure.
· Speed of recognition during a crisis is vital to understand when
an attack is an attack.
· The Allies should create an A2/AD bubble over the Baltic States.
To conclude, future war will demand a smart mass of forces able to
exert influence and effect across great distance very quickly, particularly as
new technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing massively
and irrevocably speed up the command pace of war. Therefore, given the threat
array Europe’s armed forces need to be bigger, stronger, and more agile,
smarter and with far more capability and capacity than they enjoy today. They
will also need to be allied more deeply to sharper intelligence-led indicators
that are better able to warn of pending danger.
Or, in other words, Europeans will need a combined future force
able to undertake at least one major joint operation and three smaller joint
operations. And, to create such a force in the current strategic, political, financial
and economic environment Europeans together need to act now.
Britain? Brexit or no the
British must be at the core of such efforts as the UK provides 30% of Europe’s
high-end military capability. The message? United we stand, or divided we fall.
One final thing – the conference concluded that there was a vital missing
ingredient in the goulash of European militaries: political leadership! Ho hum…
Julian Lindley-French
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