EMMENA: Shifting Sands, Turbulent Waters

 “To commit the navy irrevocably to oil was indeed to take arms against a sea of [Middle Eastern] troubles.”

Winston Spencer Churchill

EMMENA

August 27. In 1914, HMS Queen Elizabeth was commissioned into the Royal Navy. She was the first oil-powered battleship and as such represented a strategic risk for the British who had huge reserves of high-grade coal (still do), but few secure sources of oil. At a stroke, energy security, European security and the Middle East became inextricably intertwined and they have been ever since. A new geopolitical region was also formed: EMMENA - Europe, the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa, although Europeans have long tried hard to pretend otherwise. The hard reality is that for much of the past century Europe has imposed its struggles on those far beyond its borders.

A central message of my 2017 book Demons and Dragons: The New Geopolitics of Terror (London: Routledge), which is brilliant and still very reasonably-priced was that it is structural and systemic instability across a broad geopolitical space that creates the conditions for potential conflict across the full spectrum of destruction. Consequently, European security and defence cannot be separated from events to its south and east. 

The very existence of EMMENA also disproves a fundamental and false assumption driving much Western thinking about contemporary European defence. To the east there is Russia whilst to the south there is the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the threats they pose are very different. In fact, they are all part of the new geopolitics of EMMENA, and the threats they pose are not all different.

The new geopolitics of energy

On August 13^th, oil and gas rich UAE and Israel signed an historic peace agreement. Tel Aviv agreed to suspend its formal annexation of the West Bank in return for UAE recognition of Israel, only the third Arab country so to do. Critically, the UAE would not have done this without the “cautious welcome” for the agreement of regional energy superpower Saudi Arabia, recognition of an emerging tacit anti-Iranian bloc. On August 25^th, Greece and United Arab Emirates (UAE) began joint military exercises in the Aegean Sea.

Two weeks ago a Turkish frigate collided with a Greek ship close to the area off Crete where Turkey is surveying for hydrocarbons. Turkey’s ambitions are of concern to both France and Greece, even if they are nominally at least, NATO allies. Paris has already moved to increase its military presence on Cyprus and has indicated particular concern that TOTAL, a French energy company which is also working in the area, is being subjected to ‘harassment’ by Turkish warships.

Energy containment and the new Realpolitik of energy?

There is a new Realpolitik of energy underway with Russia effectively seeking the energy containment of Europe, possibly in conjunction with Turkey and Iran. Ankara believes it has been systematically excluded from potential energy discoveries because of deals done between Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt, whilst France’s actions imply EU backing for Greece and Cyprus, both member-states. This infuriates Ankara and is pushing the Turks further towards the Russians. In July, Iran, Russia and Turkey issued a joint statement condemning Israeli action in Syria after three military strikes which they attributed to Tel Aviv. This is in spite of Ankara’s support for forces trying to overthrow the Moscow and Tehran-backed regime of President Bashir al-Assad. It is also in spite of Russia and Turkey competing with each other in Libya to end the civil war therein and reap what they both see as economic benefits, including from the vast energy reserves therein. 

Russia’s ambitions do not stop there. Moscow (with possible Iranian help) is seeking to exert control over much of the oil and gas supplies upon which Europe depends, and/or threaten the supply lines upon which Europeans depend. If successful, not only will this make Europeans more dependent on Russian energy (the geopolitics of NORDSTREAM 2) but it would also push up the price of hydrocarbons thus benefitting the sorely-tried Russian economy.

Little Europe, shifting sands, turbulent waters

EMMENA is not just the focus for the new geopolitics and Realpolitik of energy it is also the stuff of grand strategy: the organisation of immense means in pursuit of grand ends. The problem is that it is precisely such geopolitics at which Little Europe is useless. Europeans seem incapable of seeing Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East and North Africa as one strategic space. It also reveals a profound lack of European strategic ambition and imagination epitomised by the high intentions, low delivery Barcelona Process. As ever, Europeans are full of grand language (Union for the Mediterranean?) which has at best limited impact. The consequence is that too much of what is a vital effort for Europe is left to front-line states such as Italy. 

If ‘Europe’ (and it would need to be ‘Europe’) is willing to seriously engage in the Middle East and North Africa it must treat the people therein as partners and be willing to demonstrate a level of strategic patience that has hitherto been lacking. For example, the promotion of free trade would be vital. However, EMMENA also reveals a fundamental weakness: the refusal and inability to compete with others often weaker powers in areas that are vital to the interests of Europeans.  Hitherto, the implicit manta has been ‘leave it to the Americans’. Increasingly, Europeans are ‘leaving it’ to the likes of Russia and Turkey. If Europeans are unwilling to properly engage seriously to help construct a more peaceful and stable MENA, then MENA will shape Europe. Sadly, ‘Europe’ itself has become a metaphor for strategic pretence and destabilising weakness.

The new geopolitics looks frighteningly like the old geopolitics. If that is the case not only will the people of the Middle East continue to suffer, but Europe will have to face the dangerous consequences systemic instability, entrenched terrorism and dangerous geopolitics.  The fate of Europe is inextricably tied to the fate of Middle East and North Africa because it is not ‘over there’, but right here.

EMMENA: shifting sands, turbulent waters, and a sea of Middle Eastern troubles.

Julian Lindley-French