Riga Test 2024: Mean What we Say, Do What We Say!

 “That’s why I argue that the defence of the UK starts in Ukraine. It’s why I argue that Estonia and the border with Russia is our front line, not just theirs. That’s the first task. It’s one of statesmanship. It’s one of diplomacy. It’s one of recognising the power of deterrence, and we haven’t in the past.”

UK Secretary of State for Defence, Rt Honourable John Healey MP, November 2024

November 12. This is a tale of three cities – it was the best of times; it was the worst of times and all that. This past month I have been in two beautiful and historic cities of Riga and London whilst in Washington they await the arrival of Caesar Donald J. Trump who has just crossed the Rubicon and will soon cross the Potomac (he is coming the long way round from New York).

My purpose in Riga was to attend the superb Riga Conference which I have had the honour of attending since its inauguration. Every year I set the Riga Test which can be thus summarised: can the good people of Riga rest easier in their beds this year compared to last. The answer is marginally yes, but only because Russia is screwing up its rape of Ukraine more than the Western European allies are screwing up NATO’s defence and deterrence…and only for now.

Russia will be back red in tooth and claw. First, because President Putin is lost in some myth about Mother Russia’s ‘great’ imperial past and the past slaying of Western enemies, both real and very much imagined. Second, because he has got it in his head that Russki Mir was born in Kyiv and for that reason Ukraine must never be allowed to choose its own destiny. Third, because China is all too happy to impoverish Russia to stretch the American forces thin the world over and use Putin as a useful idiot to that end. Fourth, Donald J. Trump will not be stretched partly because he really does not care about anything that gets in the way of America First.

My second port of call was London. Both Riga and London are/were ports. My purpose in London was threefold. First, to promote my new book The Retreat from Strategy, which is still brilliant and very reasonably priced on Amazon and in all good bookstores. Second, to give my annual rendition of Henry V’s Band of Brothers speech to my own band of brothers (and sisters) at the Cavalry and Guards Club for which I am brilliant and very reasonably priced. We few, we happy few and all that.

It is true that the Russians are mired in a disastrously and incompetently Russian meatgrinder of a war in Ukraine and for that reason the immediate military threat to the Baltic States is perhaps less than it was prior to February 2022. However, contemporary warfare reaches across the hybrid, cyber, conventional, and nuclear domains and Moscow sees itself as already engaged in a war with the West across several domains.

At the Cavalry and Guards Club I had a delightful dinner with Lord George Robertson, who is one of my political heroes not least because he is to Scotland what I am to Sheffield. I am not going to reveal the contents of that discussion albeit to say I came away encouraged. Robertson is leading the new British Government’s defence review which is due for completion early in 2025. The fact he is leading it convinces me the review will be a properly strategic NATO-First review in marked contrast to the political PR London has published for the past twenty or so years. For too long strategically illiterate Treasury economists have demanded London only recognise as much threat as they think Britain can afford and refused to consider the economic and human consequences of a war in Europe, they have helped cause by forcing Britain to punch beneath its weight in NATO and Europe’s defence.

Which brings me to Washington. My Ukrainian friends are becoming increasingly cynical about the ‘whatever it takes’ rhetoric coming out of London when it is clear that London has neither the intention to define just what the ‘what’ is, the means nor the risk-requiring will to do anything more than freeze the current conflict and thus leave Russia holding 20% of Ukraine.  At least Trump will be honest about that. He has already told both Putin and Zelensky that the war must stop and if not, he will punish both. If Putin does not end his war Trump will surge American support for Ukraine, if Zelensky does not stop fighting he will cut off US military aid which is 80% of the total effort. Either way, Crimea and the Donbas is lost to Ukraine. If they do what he demands Russia will be gradually ‘rehabilitated’ in both Trump world and Euro world primarily because the Germans are quietly hoping Trump succeeds.

What links Riga and London, apart from Ryanair and boozy Brits, is trust. The Latvians believe that Britain, other western Europeans, and Americans are committed to their defence. The problem is they do not believe it as much as they did last year. The coming tawdry deal over Ukraine will deepen their mistrust that whilst Trump at least does what he says, even if they don’t like it, western Europeans rarely do as they say. It is all smoke and errors. Back to London. The NATO Allies agreed to enhance the Enhanced Forward Presence in the Baltic States to further deter the Russians by increasing the size of their battalion-sized forces to brigades. All well and good. However, London is now suggesting that most of the ‘strengthened’ force will stay in the UK deterring no-one. Worse, there are those close to the defence review suggesting NATO needs to be “more realistic.” This is London-speak to mean that Britain no longer has either the ambition or the will to meet the very commitments it made to NATO in the 2019 Military Strategy, the Defence and Deterrence of the Euro-Atlantic Area Strategy, or the Regional Plans to which London signed up and which are central to what?  The deterrence of Russia and defence of the Baltic States.

So, Mr Healey, mean it when you say “Estonia and the border with Russia is our front line, not just theirs” because what I hear is that ‘our’ front-line far from starting at Tartu pretty much starts and ends at Margate. No more smoke and errors! That is the real test of Riga 2024.

Julian Lindley-French