Be Careful, Mr President!

 

Never has so much been owed to so many by so many?

To paraphrase Winston Churchill on another occasion

Dear President Trump,

Be careful! There is a fine line between rightly getting Europeans to do more for their own defence and destroying the transatlantic relationship. The latter would be the greatest act of self-harm since Americans were expelled from the British Empire for uppity behaviour (I jest).  For all our peskiness the United States needs allies more not less today than at any time since 1945.  The very argument you are making about burden-sharing cuts both ways. Those burdens feel heavier precisely because the US needs capable allies and partners ever more for the realisation of America’s own critical interests. Americans have earned the right to capable allies and are entirely correct that European military weakness risks making America weaker due to overstretch thus imposed on US forces.

Several points

The very fact that in 2025 560 million Europeans are dependent on 340 million Americans for their defence against 140 Russians is frankly pathetic. It is not helped by 80 million Germans who demand the right to a seemingly eternal Pilgrimage to Redemption whilst happy to sell arms to all and sundry.  I once wrote in the International Herald Tribune that for 50 years Americans, Britons and others told the Germans they could not do very much because of World War Two. For the past 10 years the Germans have told the rest of us they cannot do very much because of World War Two. Twenty years later Berlin is still telling us they cannot do very much because of World War Two. Germany is the deep hole in the defence of Europe and Berlin’s free riding an autobahn to Nemesis. It is not good enough, Germany.

With respect, sir, you seem to forget that one of the reasons so many European states are deeply in debt is because American banks swindled European banks. By wrapping toxic sub-prime loans within complex inter-bank arrangements, you Americans almost destroyed the Western financial system. European governments had to bail out both European AND American banks with taxpayer’s money. Where do you think that money came from?  Defence budgets of course.

In a blatant case of responsibility without either power or authority a ‘defence summit’ of European heads of state and government took place in London.  The aim was to create a ‘coalition of the willing’ to ‘lead’ peace enforcement (not peacekeeping) when some kind of ceasefire emerges from the carnage on Europe’s eastern flank.   The reality is that no such force could be credible without a very strong, visible and present US military reserve, far more than a guarantee. Given the likely length of any demilitarized zone and the nature and capability of the parties to the conflict any such European force would collapse like a house of cards without real American support. As an aside, to not invite the leaders of the Baltic States to the London meeting was the equivalent of Western Europeans ordering takeaway for the Russians!

NATO. It is true that you Americans bear too much of the cost of the Alliance. Still, it is a fool’s errand to simply compare either the US defence budget or the cost of US forces in Europe.  First, the bulk of EUCOM forces are in Europe in pursuit of US interests. It is no coincidence your AFRICOM is also based in Europe. Imagine, Sir, if Europeans responded by ordering American forces our of Europe. Washington would find American security and defence policy far harder to realise. Far from paying for 67% of NATO the real figure is closer to 25% although Americans are right to point out that US forces available to the defence of Europe should also be counted.

The Oscars took place last night but that is no reason to believe Hollywood History.  Americans tend to write Allies out of history and then complain too much of the burden falls on America. Eighty years ago, this month Operation Varsity Plunder took place.  Forget The Bridge at Remagen (a strategic dead-end) or Patton’s absurd coup de theatre (Patton’s ego) the true crossing of the Rhine in strength began at 2100 hours March 23, 1945, under the command of Field Marshal Bernard Law Montgomery and the 2nd British Army, 21 Army Group. Operation Varsity was the airborne assault led by the British 6^th Airborne Division and the 1^st Canadian Parachute Battalion alongside the US XVII Airborne Corps. The drop was well over twice the size of the D-Day ‘drop’ and far bigger than the Market Garden operation. Operation Plunder saw the crossing of the Rhine at Wesel and the successful exploitation of the bridgehead thereafter. Plunder was led by the British XII Corps and XXX Corps, as well as the US XVI Corps. It also included the 1^st Commando Brigade, Royal Marines as part of the spearhead. My point is that Europeans have done ‘heavy lifting’ for many years but rarely been given any credit for it, not least by ‘not invented here’ American historians. American leadership in Afghanistan and Iraq did little to impress Allies. You need to up your game if we Europeans are still to follow you Americans.  Indeed, I wrote a couple of reports to that effect. 

Stronger together

In conclusion, Mr President, be careful what you wish for, which appears to be the maintenance of American control over ever greater European military capability and capacity. Forget it! The more capable Europeans become the more say they will demand over US campaigns and operations.  Still, that is a bridge yet to be crossed. A Bridge Too Far?

Sir, I am no shrinking European strategic wallflower. Some would say I have been at the very forefront of efforts to get Europeans to get their defence strategic act together. If you read my latest book with General Lord Richards – The Retreat from Strategy (which is brilliant and very reasonably-priced) you will see what I mean. We do not pull our punches.

Still, as a friend of America let me be Yorkshire blunt: Americans will not Make America Great Again by Making America Alone Again!

Respectfully,

Julian Lindley-French