“Because other people are fools, must you be so too?”
Emperor Marcus Aurelius
What does China want?
April 17th. What
does Xi’s China want? 1. To create the conditions for the ‘safe’ military
subjugation of Taiwan. 2. To coerce states in the Eastern Pacific and South and
East China Seas spheres of Chinese influence to accept Beijing’s de facto
control because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are control freaks, and its
leadership fears any system – domestic or foreign – that might challenge its
control. 3. To use the global geoeconomic system to fund its geopolitical
ambitions by fair means and foul. 4. To use Russia and Iran to fix US forces in
theatres away from the Eastern Pacific and ensure the Americans cannot
intervene in force. 5. In the longer run to curb US power in the Pacific to the
point where the Americans are effectively excluded from the Pacific east of
Pearl Harbor.
Dead historians tended to divide the
history of the Roman Empire into three eras: the Republicanate, Principate and
Dominate. The Republicanate (which I just invented) is seen by some as a
glorious era during which Rome functioned like some latter day Western European
democracy but in fact did not. This glorious era made all sorts of
allusions to ancient Greece but was destroyed in the First Century BC by
over-mighty citizens such as Sulla, Pompey and Caesar who seized power from the
Senate and squabbled mightily amongst themselves but still ruled under the
pretence that they were merely primus inter pares and were in fact defending
the Republic. This was the Principate. Then there was the final phase of
Rome’s glory which also marked its decline, division and eventual collapse –
the Dominate. During the Dominate the emperors abandoned all and any
attempt to pretend some residual constitutional propriety existed and ruled by
naked mainly military power.
The cause of the Dominate was Rome’s
so-called Third Century Crisis. This was caused by the end of imperial
expansion, the growing costs of maintaining imperial power across the known
world, growing incursions into said Empire from emerging competitors, the
breakdown of trade, inflation due to the printing of money by emperors with no
understanding of economics, and the myriad political divisions that decline is
father to and the growing influence of the military in politics.
How is the West complicit?
Take China today. For thirty years
China has been content to get rich and powerful by helping Western leaders
maintain the Potemkinesque façade of material prosperity. Under this
arrangement, known by the rather misleading term globalisation when it was really
Chinaisation the West was made to feel materially comfortable in return for
paying China to accelerate its own development and construct an enormous
military machine.
As long as the West was content to
consume huge amounts of Chinese goods and Western leaders were happy to turn a
blind eye to Beijing’s coercion, spying, stealing and all-around collective
bullying China was happy to get richer and more powerful. Some states,
such as the strategically illiterate British, even sold their industrial crown
jewels and much else to China, such as British Steel, which should have been
renamed Chinese Steel.
There was a problem. The
Chinese Communist Party which controls China with an iron fist, particularly
since it crushed (literally) a bunch of students in 1989 who had the temerity
to challenge the absolute power of the CCP, needed globalisation. This is
because so-called post-Tiananmen deal between the CCP and the burgeoning
Chinese middle class involved the latter never questioning the power of the
former in return for making the latter ever more materially more comfortable.
The Chinese Dominate
During this period of the Chinese
Principate CCP leaders continued to pretend they were ‘of’ the people. Hua
Goufeng, Jiang Xemin, Hu Jintao and others all claimed they were children of
the proletariat. Then came Xi Jinping, China’s wannabe Caesar, who in
2018 became “President for Life”. Xi, a princeling of the Party, crossed
the Chinese Rubicon in two ways. First, he replaced any legitimacy
conferred on him by the ‘Party’ by establishing his power on the People’s
Liberation Army and showering the armed forces with glittering new weapons.
Second, he abandoned any pretence to be the Chinese heir of Karl Marx and
replaced Communism with old-fashioned Han nationalism reinforced with a strong
dose of Xenophobia.
The reasons for this became apparent
during the COVID catastrophe. Xi realised that one day the West would
wake up and finally understand that it had been feeding a dragon that could one
day consume it. When that happened the West’s growing transfer of supply
chains to China would stop. Starved of Western money China would face a
problem transferring export generated income into domestic development unless
Xi could find alternatives. The route Xi took was effectively force
smaller and poorer powers into China’s orbit through debt. The problem
was that most of the West woke up too early (except the British whose leaders
continue to try and sell themselves to China) and Russia, China’s useful idiot,
screwed up.
Now, China is faced with a situation
not unlike Rome during the Third Century Crisis. It has built an enormous
military which is very impressive, but which will soon decline because it will
need to be constantly re-capitalised. However, unless the CCP can
maintain at least 6% per annum growth the only way to do that would be to shift
money away from social development. When that happens XI will face growing
discontent in both the Party and the country and will doubtless seek to
suppress dissent. He will also be tempted to embark on military
adventurism to burnish his Han nationalist credentials, with Taiwan clearly in
the crosshairs of Chinese gunsights, and maybe others.
Action This Day!
1. Prevent China from creating the conditions for
the ‘safe’ military subjugation of Taiwan by US Allies helping to keep America
strong where she needs to be strong. In Europe, that means European Allies must deliver two
thirds (67%) of NATO’s combined operational capacity for collective defence by
2035 at the very latest, as measured in rapidly usable forces, enablers, and
other capabilities to execute advance plans across SACEUR’s Area of
Responsibility. America’s European allies must also collectively provide at
least 50% of all NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP) designated capabilities
by 2030.
2. Prevent
China from coercing states in the Eastern Pacific and South and East China Seas
spheres of Chinese influence to accept Beijing’s de facto control. This
can only be achieved by a new concept of Global Democratic Alliance built
around the US and with strong democratic allies in Europe and the Pacific.
3. Turn the global geoeconomic
system back in the West’s favour and thus legitimate Western geopolitical
ambitions by providing both carrots and sticks to China. The Trump
administration is using tariffs and reshoring of industries as a blunt tool to
create such a shift but as yet there is no apparent geopolitical end such
policy aspires.
4. Blunt the ability of Russia and Iran to fix US forces in theatres away from the Pacific. For example, the NATO European allies must aspire to the creation of an Allied Mobile Heavy Force by 2030 that could deter, defend and defeat the Russians irrespective of US force commitments.
5. Strengthen US power in the
Pacific to the point where the ends, ways and means of Chinese policy and
strategy are impossible to realise because the cost of doing so would threaten
the hold of the CCP over the Chinese people.
The curse of empires
China is not intrinsically bad. It
is simply behaving like all ultra-nationalists behave when they have the power
to impose their will on others. What is bad is the inability of democratic
leaders to face uncomfortable truths. This is something I saw last week when I
chaired a meeting last week at NATO HQ in Brussels. Ultimately, the Middle
Kingdom sees itself as precisely that – the centre of the world, an
empire.
Empires are of course dangerous when
they expand, but they are particularly dangerous when they begin to decline,
and the settled order of power therein is challenged. That is exactly
what happened in the Third Century to Rome and may well happen to China now as
those in power seek to re-establish ‘order’. Therefore, we are just
entering peak danger as far as China is concerned but with strength there is
still a good chance Beijing can be persuaded that mutual coexistence is better
than mutually assured destruction. Face it, leaders!
Julian Lindley-French
