The European Way of War

 

“My books are like the British frigates you Norwegians are buying – brilliant and very reasonably-priced”.

Julian Lindley-French at the Bergen Defence Conference

If Europeans had to fight a war?

February 9^th.  If Europeans have to fight a high-end war, how can European forces best apply emerging, destructive and disruptive AI-enabled technologies (EDDT) if they do not understand what that technology is or how it can be applied over time?  How can Europeans exploit them to maintain peace and freedom in a world of predators? These technologies will include AI, quantum computing, hypersonic missile systems, drone tech, Nano-tech and a host of other ‘tech’ that together will transform the character of war.  That was the challenge I posed to Norwegian and Allied leaders last week at the superb Oslo Security Conference and Bergen Defence Conference. Or, to put it another way, how can small forces generate military-strategic effect in a very large space? My recent article “Super JEF 2” , co-written with General John Allen and Jim Townsend, addresses many of the challenges Europeans will face in a contested European space. https://lindleyfrench.blogspot.com/2026/01/super-jef-2.html

The European Way of War Project

To answer those questions The Alphen Group https://thealphengroup.com/ which I have the honour to chair, will shortly commence a major project entitled The European Way of War.  It will seek to address several critical demand and supply-led questions Europeans must now consider together.  The assumptions underpinning the project are profoundly different to current thinking. First, Europeans are simply not good at the American Way of War.  A European Way of War would thus be very different. To credibly deter a high-end aggressor acting across our vulnerability spectrum, a collection of relatively small and mid-sized countries would need to generate core resilience, planned redundancy, and a mass of force that can demonstrably manoeuvre at scale across air, sea, land, cyber, space, information and knowledge.  Any such force would also need to make radical use of AI and robotics across both the strategic and tactical space to offset a relative paucity of personnel.

On the demand side the Project will consider the following: What instruments of power would Europeans need to deter and if needed to fight the Russians if the Americans were busy elsewhere or simply no longer in Europe?  What space exactly would Europeans need to defend? How would Europeans deter?  What would a European concept of deterrence look like?  How would a European escalation ladder be crafted across gray zone warfare to cyber warfare to high end conventional warfare and nuclear warfare?  What would be the relationship between civilian and military instruments of power?  How could relatively small European forces generate the great effects needed?  What would a high-end European First responder force look like? What would European Multi-Domain Operations look like? What minimum force would be credible in such a role?  How would such a force be commanded and organised?  How would such a European force be equipped and armed? 

On the supply side the Project will consider the following questions: What technologies will Europeans need? What reforms would be needed to the European Defence, Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB)? Given the growing importance of emerging, destructive and disruptive technologies in the Order of Battle, what other parts of the European technological base would need to be engaged?  What reforms would be needed to European defence supply chains to ensure secure supply and re-supply?  How much would it all cost and when would such a defence need to be in place?   

Small force, great effect

This is not the first time Western forces have faced such a challenge of two different ways of war. In 1941, Churchill and Roosevelt created the Western Way of War by putting steel before flesh.  In many ways, steel before flesh was a compromise between the American and British ways of war.  The Americans had to win two systemic wars simultaneously in both Europe and the Asia-Pacific, as they might do today.  For the Americans the policy of ‘Germany First’ was purely performative, given what the Japanese had done to the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor. To run a genuine world war the Americans forged a mass of everything, all the time, everywhere and very quickly. It was not always pretty but it was effective.

Whilst there were significant British forces in the ‘Far East’ London was overwhelmingly focussed on winning the war in Europe, as Europeans would be today.  With a relatively small population, albeit reinforced by dominion and imperial forces, the British were forced to innovate far more than the Americans.  That is what steel before flesh began evolving into technology before flesh. The evolution of warfare is about to become a revolution.

From transition to transformation

The European Way of War Project will emphasise innovation, technology, precision, and the use of small forces magnified by robotics generating great effect. That will be the essence of the European Way of War. During the next defence planning cycle (10-15 years) emerging, destructive and disruptive technologies will emerge as systems on existing platforms, such as artillery, armour and ships.  Thereafter, the impact of such new technologies in combination on the character of war will be massive and driven by those who have a concept for their use and access to them. Therefore, if a European Way of War is to be realised it will require radical new thinking, new partnerships and a NATO very different to the one that exists today.

Two years ago I wrote a piece entitled “No Way Norway” in which I excoriated Norwegian defence policy for being little more than a small bunch of energy rich people free riding for their defence on those less fortunate.  Oslo clearly heard because Norway has really upped its game since then…but far more needs to be done!  

Julian Lindley-French