Alphen, Netherlands. 30
September. On 26 January, 1900 US
President Theodore Roosevelt wrote a letter to Henry L. Sprague of the Union
Club of New York in which he wrote, “Speak softly and carry a big stick
and you will go far”. The US Press
seized on the phrase and a new US foreign policy doctrine was born – ‘Big Stick
Diplomacy’. Last week in New York Iran’s
President Rouhani signalled a desire to open a new chapter in US-Iranian
relations. There are however two ways of
looking at Iran’s demarche – an optimistic and a pessimistic view.
The optimistic view is
that President Rouhani is genuine in his desire to improve relations. The 27 September telephone call between the
two presidents and the meeting between the US and Iranian foreign ministers
were indeed important political landmarks in an otherwise barren landscape of
mutual mistrust. At the very least
President Rouhani’s style is a welcome change to the cartoonish
anti-Americanism of his immediate predecessor President Ahmadinejad. Moreover, Rouhani’s suggestion that Iran
would re-start nuclear talks “without preconditions” is also an important break
with the past.
There is also clear
evidence that Western-led sanctions are damaging both Iran’s economy and
society and thus undermining the regime’s grip on power. Moreover, President Rouhani was met with
protests from hard-liners upon his return from New York which suggests the
shift in policy is genuine. Iran’s Supreme Leader
Ayotallah Khamenei has also issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons and their
use.
However, even the
optimists must prepare for a long haul. A
former British ambassador Sherard Cowper-Cowles recently said that in any
diplomatic dealings with Iran form is almost as important as substance. Therefore, President Rouhani’s New
York demarche is at best a prelude to a play of many acts. Dealing with Iran will thus require patient
engagement with all the diplomatic niceties and conventions observed if there
is to be any chance of an enduring political settlement.
There is also a
pessimistic view to be had. President Rouhani
is a seasoned diplomat and a sophisticated and considered leader. However, his assertion that Iran is not seeking, nor
has it ever sort the development of nuclear weapons is simply not
credible. Rather, the pessimists believe Iran has noted the West’s
difficulties over Syria and has concluded the US and its European allies no
longer have the will to use force. With 'Big Stick Diplomacy' dead now is the time to sow confusion between the US and its allies.
Specifically, Tehran sees
the 3 September vote of Britain’s Parliament not to authorise force against the
Assad regime and President Obama’s own problems with Congress over Syria as further indicators of a lack of Western
resolve. Critically, after a bruising decade Europe in
particular has abandoned any pretence to coercion in foreign and security
policy and Americans are retreating into sequestration-driven isolationism.
Therefore, the
suggestion by President Rouhani that Western-led sanctions are damaging the life-quality
of Iranians simply tells Western politicians and publics exactly what they
want to hear. If that is correct Iran
could be seeking to isolate the US in the so-called ‘E3+3’ meetings at which Britain,
China, France, Germany, Russia and the US discuss Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The US and its allies will thus awake
one morning to an Iranian fait accompli
announcing to the world it has become a nuclear weapons power which will irrevocably change an already unstable balance of power across the Middle
East and beyond.
In that light President Rouhani’s comments then take on an entirely different strategic hue. Even the carefully staged protests upon
President Rouhani’s return from New York would be part of an
attempt to de-stabilise US policy. Indeed, President Rouhani’s
very reasonableness could thus be a greater threat to US and allied policy than President Ahmadinejad’s hysteria as conflict-weary Americans and
Europeans are suckered by a smile and a wave.
Sadly, in the hard reality of international politics there is a world of
difference between appearance, intent and action. Tehran is simply buying time.
Why now? According to several Western intelligence
agencies Iran is about to enter a critical phase in the the development of a
nuclear weapon. Iran has much to gain by speaking softly as it develops a big
stick. Therefore, President
Obama would be wise to recall the sage advice of President Theodore Roosevelt
as he contemplates the US response to Iran’s charm offensive.
Speak softly but carry
a big stick and you could go far, Mr President.
Julian Lindley-French
