Alphen, Netherlands. 31
March. “Forget these frivolous demands
which strike a terror to my fainting soul”. So pleads the Devil’s agent Mephostophilis
to Doctor Faustus in Christopher Marlowe’s Goethe-inspired play. Faustus has just agreed twenty-four years of
power and luxury in return for the eternal damnation thereafter of his
soul. The opportunity Moscow seized to
annex Ukraine-Crimea was made possible by three factors; Europe’s energy
dependency, Russian investments in European financial centres most notably
London and European unilateral disarmament.
Today, Russia supplies
EU member-states with 25% of their oil and gas.
The Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland import between 70% and
100% of their gas from Russia. Russia
has also created a very strategic cartel called the Gas Exporting Countries
Forum which holds up to 70% of the world’s reserves. Russia is playing hard poker as Europe as ever
plays bad chess.
The other day at a
conference a senior British politician called me “sweet, naïve and
young”. As insults go it was a pretty
mild attack and I have known worse, although I did object to him calling me
“young”. My naivété to his mind was to
rebuke British politicians for their enduring ability to sacrifice the
long-term strategic well-being of Britain for the short-term political fixes
that have and continue to exaggerate and accelerate the UK’s precipitous
decline. In his utter cynicism he
revealed why politics in Europe has become the enemy of strategy.
The defence figures alone
speak for themselves. The US invests roughly $100k per soldier in
2014 compared with an average European investment of $24k with the
interoperability gap between US and European forces growing daily. And, whilst the US can deploy some 12.5% of
its force many Europeans can only deploy on average 3.5% . Moreover,
whilst the US spends only 36% of its defence budget on personnel some Europeans
are spending between 70% and 75%. Russia is investing some $700bn in a new
military by 2020.
Now, I am no nostalgist
about defence. States should only have
the minimum military power commensurate with the achievement of legitimate
foreign and security policy goals.
However, not only are Europeans selling themselves body and soul for energy and dodgy money they are fast abandoning
the very means to assure their collective defence. The farcical sanctions the EU imposed on Russian
officials simply reinforced the sense of dangerous impotence which today
characterises Europe in the world and for which Europeans will pay a dear
price.
London is a case in
point and has become dangerously unbalanced in its strategic prescriptions. Although the British are
investing some $250bn in new defence equipment over the next decade if one
listens to British officials it is very hard to understand why. Indeed, they reject the very idea that the
world is returning to Realpolitik even though it is plan to see. At a meeting in London last week the London
Establishment’s obsession with soft power was all too illuminating. British officials were dismissive of
Ukraine-Crimea. They inferred it was a
minor event and that Britain should remain focussed almost exclusively on
counter-terrorism and aid and development. If one fills
a government with counter-terrorism specialists then every problem becomes
counter-terrorism.
All of this makes
President Obama’s speech in Brussels last week sound not a little desperate.
“Going forward, every NATO member state must step up and carry its share of the
burden by showing the political will to invest in our collective defence and by
developing the capabilities to serve as a source of international peace and security”. Not a chance!
As he was speaking I was talking to a high-ranking NATO officer who told
me bluntly the Alliance can no longer carry out the very collective defence
President Obama referred to. Another
senior NATO officer mused with me about how far the new Russian Army would make
it across Europe before it was stopped. Capability, will and intent are the stuff of power not wishful thinking. Now, I do not expect Russia to roll across Europe but the Baltic States are rightfully concerned.
To my British
politician friend I say this. If I am ‘naïve’
to demand leaders confront the world as it is not as they would like it to be then
so be it; if I am ‘sweet’ for calling upon leaders to face reality then I am so
condemned; and if I am ‘young’ for requiring principles of power and influence
are adhered to then guilty as charged.
In his dying hour Faustus
faces up to the consequence of his hubris as he watches the hand of a clock
move inexorably towards his damnation.
“O lente, lente currite noctis ecquis”, he pleads - “Oh slowly, slowly
run the horses of the night”.
Europe: Faust or Whore?
Julian Lindley-French
