“The Open Door Policy under Article 10 of the Washington
Treaty is one of the Alliance's great successes. Successive rounds of NATO
enlargement have enhanced the security and stability of all our nations. The
steady progress of Euro-Atlantic integration fosters reform, strengthens
collective security, and ensures the stability necessary for prosperity. NATO's
door will remain open to all European democracies which share the values of our
Alliance, which are willing and able to assume the responsibilities and
obligations of membership, which are in a position to further the principles of
the Treaty, and whose inclusion will contribute to the security of the North
Atlantic area”.
Article 92, Wales Summit Declaration, September 2014.
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany,
29 January. Nestled deep in the cradling embrace of the Bavarian Alps Garmisch
is the very embodiment of German solidity and certainty. Stout houses of alpine
wood line affluent streets themselves adorned by stout BMWs and Mercedes. And
yet that certainty and solidity has also been visibly shaken this past year by
the arrival of over a million refugees many of them entering Germany via
Bavaria. It is a stark reminder that not only is change inevitable, but the
need for constant engagement, management and adaptation. For once it is the
peaceful management of change which brought me here this week. For the past two
days I have been working with senior colleagues from Podgorica and the excellent George
C. Marshall Center preparing for Montenegro’s planned accession to NATO
membership, hopefully in the first quarter of 2017. It is a timely reminder that amidst the doom
and gloom of Europe’s strategic retreat and political incompetence important
progress is still being made towards what US President George H. W. Bush once
called “a Europe whole, free, and at peace”.
Faced with threats to NATO’s east
and south the accession of Montenegro is also a reminder that the Alliance
exists in a world in which the confrontation between fundamental ideas and
principles of governance and even existence is leading to hyper-competition
over contested spaces. Many in Europe tend to see Russia and the Middle East as
the cauldron for such competition. In fact, the contest is right here on Europe’s
extended strategic patio and throughout the Western Balkans.
The Western Balkans is the crux
of two critical challenges; Russia is seeking to expand its zero sum,
West-excluding influence, most noticeably in Serbia, whilst Islamic State (IS)
is seeking a presence that would threaten Europeans directly. Indeed, Director of
Europol Rob Wainwright this week warned that IS has established training camps
in the Balkans in preparation for attacks on the EU. It is therefore vital, be
it in the form of NATO or EU enlargement, such spaces are not ceded to adversaries
and enemies simply because Europe in particular has lost the will, the
patience, and indeed, the money, to invest in a Europe whole, free, and at
peace.
In that challenging strategic
context Montenegro’s accession to NATO provides proof positive that the West
remains committed to its historic mission and understands that enlargement is
not just an adjunct to strategic engagement, but a vital part of it. Indeed, Montenegro
must become a showcase for the future adaptation of the Alliance to challenges,
risks, and threats near and far. Given the many challenges of governance Podgorica
faces that goal will not be easy to achieve, but that is the essential challenge
the Alliance now faces.
To that distinctly strategic end
it is vital Montenegro shows the way forward to other aspirant states in the
region and beyond by immediately establishing a reputation as a small but
well-prepared and well-briefed NATO member.
Therefore, my guidance to senior Montenegrins in Garmisch was to spend
the next year mastering the strategy, the detail and the process of NATO so that
their delegation can really hit the ground running in Brussels.
To my mind that means Podgorica
takes a series of well-crafted and supported steps. First, write a national
security strategy and a strategic defence review set firmly within the context
of the NATO Strategic Concept. Second, present a first draft at the NATO Warsaw
Summit in July. Third, undertake simulations of key NATO fora, such as the
North Atlantic Council and the Nuclear Planning Group. Fourth, engage in crisis
management simulations to better prepare Montenegrin colleagues for the coming challenge
of membership. The NATO Defense College in Rome could host much of the effort which
in turn could lead to the creation of a template to help other NATO partners’
transition to NATO members.
Such simulations will be vital
because the transition from being a NATO partner to being a NATO member will
come as a shock to Podgorica. Indeed, there is always the danger that given the
long and complicated process involved in gaining accession to the Alliance membership
is seen as an end in itself. It is not. Indeed, whilst much good diplomacy
takes place in NATO’s excellent cafeteria and restaurants there is certainly no
such thing as a free NATO lunch and the contract Montenegro has just signed is certainly
a tough one. Montenegrins will soon enjoy the security of NATO strongest and
most powerful states, but only in return for the sharing of their very onerous
responsibilities.
Welcome to NATO, Montenegro!
Julian Lindley-French