Warsaw, Poland. 29 June. It has
been an interesting couple of days. My reason for coming here on the eve of the
NATO Warsaw Summit was to present my new paper, NATO: The Enduring Alliance 2016 for the German Polish Co-operation
Foundation. However, the 65 million person elephant in the room for much of the
debate was of course Brexit. Part of me wondered what kind of reception I would
get. After all, in the past I called for Britain to leave the EU, I predicted
Brexit, before I decided after talking to a lot of people, and in the wake of
the Paris attacks, that on balance Britain should remain. My concerns were
misplaced. Poland of all countries understands the difficulty of balancing patriotism,
interdependence, and membership of an institution a significant part of which
would like to replace the democratic state with an oligarchic super-state.
What I found instead this morning
at the Sjem, Poland’s parliament, when
speaking to senior parliamentarians, was a respect for the democratic decision of
the British people. What I also found was Polish pragmatism. Poland deeply
regrets Brexit. However, there was absolutely no sense that the British people
should somehow be punished for having the temerity to have expressed a majority
opinion on a matter of fundamental import to them. Rather, there was a genuine commitment
to forge a new relationship for Britain with the EU, and to confirm Britain’s
existing relationships with friends and allies on the Continent. The terrible
events in Istanbul last night served as a stark reminder of the dangers we all
face and must all face together.
Encouragingly it was also an
opinion of hope and goodwill expressed by Ambassador Rolf Nikel, Germany’s
envoy to Poland, at a delightful reception held last night at the German
Embassy. Indeed, the only humiliation to which I was subjected concerned the tactical
withdrawal from the European football championships by England following their
defeat by mighty Iceland. Don’t worry. I
immediately countered by enquiring as to the state of Berlin’s new airport!
Poland is committed to keep the
British fully engaged in the security and defence of Europe. They are right. To
that end the forthcoming NATO Warsaw Summit must to some extent be a Brexit
summit. Indeed, it will be a chance for London to remind it allies and partners
that Britain remains a power and is utterly committed to the security and
defence of Europe. There is one caveat. David Cameron and George Osborne are talking
of more cuts to public expenditure in light of Brexit. It would certainly be a
mistake to cut the British defence budget any further. It would also be
advisable to re-invest in Britain’s diplomatic machine as London will need all
the tools of influence at its disposal in the coming years.
So, Poland need not worry…too much.
However, Poland’s help would be much appreciated, recognising Warsaw faces its
own political challenges at present. Forget all the pre-negotiation posturing.
As France and Germany have proven in the past it is amazing how flexible
European ‘principles’ are when it comes to power. A post-Brexit deal is
possible. That was also the view of my Polish counterparts.
Which brings me to Scotland. If
European partners such as Poland want to find a solution with and for the UK to
the mutual benefit of all they must be careful how they respond to the
political manoeuvrings of the Scottish Nationalist Party leader, Nicola
Sturgeon. Her political mission is and always has been to destroy the UK. The
Scots had a referendum in September 2014 which saw a decisive 55%-45% rejection
of Scottish independence. Above all, Sturgeon legitimised the UK-wide Brexit
referendum as a UK-wide referendum by campaigning in it, and by campaigning
outside of Scotland for the Remain side. She can hardly cry foul simply because
she lost a vote that she legitimised. She might have had a case if she had
ordered the SNP to abstain on the grounds that such a referendum had not been
formally endorsed by the Scottish Parliament. She did not. Therefore, countries
like Poland have a choice to make; London or Edinburgh.
What struck me most about this
visit is the deep and enduring human relationship between Britain and Poland.
What rightly matters to Poles is the proper and respectful treatment of the up
to one million Poles now living in mainly England. However, if Poland really
wants to help a friend at this difficult time it could do so by recognising that
it was the sheer scale and pace of inward migration that drove much of the
Brexit vote. It was also the refusal of fellow Europeans to heed warnings about
this.
Britain will not get access to
the single market unless it upholds the principle of free movement. A huge
swathe of British people will not accept a new deal with the EU unless and
until some degree of pragmatic management of immigration is in place. Absolutism
on either side right now will simply entrench already entrenched positions. It
would be better for all of us to properly explore the possible, not retreat
behind the barricades of the impossible.
So, the message from Warsaw? Let’s all calm down, those trying to stir the
pot cease and desist, and those responsible for moving us all forward…get a
grip! There will be a solution but
together we must fashion it.
Julian Lindley-French
