Alphen, Netherlands.
24 November. In January 2016 I stood in the snow near Trakai, Lithuania and
made an important decision. In spite of
my profound concerns about the EU and the future direction of travel towards an
over-centralised ‘Europe’, as the Commission endeavoured to build its ‘tower’
ever closer to Euro-heaven, and the danger it poses to substantive democracy on
the Continent I would reject Brexit. My
decision came after listening to H.E. Linas Linkevicius, the Lithuanian Foreign
Minister, at the famous Snowmeeting. At that moment I became a ‘Big Picture
Remainer’ and decided geopolitics, particularly the threat posed by Russia to
my friends in the Baltic States, Poland and elsewhere trumped my concerns about
who governs me. I have not changed my
position. However, I now fear for the Brexit humiliation of Britain and the
geopolitical consequences that will ensue.
Yesterday, I
read carefully the 20 November Brexit speech Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier
made to a Brussels conference organised by Charles Grant’s Centre for European
Reform. Now, I know that M. Barnier is at the negotiating schwerpunkt of Brexit and that he has ambitions to become the next
President of the European Commission.
And, for much of the speech he merely stated the obvious – “Brexit must mean
Brexit” and the “orderly withdrawal” of Britain from the EU must see solutions
found for the divorce bill, citizens’ rights, the inner-Irish border, and so-called
‘pass-porting rights’ for banks based in the City of London post-Brexit.
However, by
far the most unconvincing part of his speech was when he said his objective was
not to punish Britain. Yes, it is. As former Minister and TV pundit Michael
Portillo said last night, Barnier’s aim is to discourage others from making “a
break for the prison walls”. Now, I might use different language but Barnier
and his colleagues of course need to be seen to punish Britain if for no other
reason…pour encourager les autres. Indeed,
to the EU Britain has become a latter day Admiral Byng.
This morning
Prime Minister May is in Brussels to discuss with European Council President
Donald Tusk upping the Brexit divorce bill to some £40bn in return for a
written commitment that the EU will begin trade talks. Good luck with that. She is also there to attend the EU’s Eastern Partnership
Summit (I wonder if in future there will be EU Western Partnership summits) with
six states, as the name suggests, to the east of the EU. May will not only confirm, and rightly so,
that Britain will maintain its commitment to the security and defence of Eastern
Europe post-Brexit, she will also offer some £100m of British taxpayer’s money
to counter disinformation in the region.
So, all well
and good? No. First, beyond the liberal chattering classes one finds in London,
British think-tanks, and politically mono-cultural EUtopian British universities
there is growing public anger at what is perceived as the Brexit
humiliation of Britain by the EU. Mine is not a scientific survey but the more ‘ordinary’
Brits to whom I speak, both erstwhile Brexiteers and Remainers, I detect growing
anger as what many see now as an attack on Britain. Whatever May and the
Establishment say it could well become very hard to convince British citizens
to risk geld and lives for what one called those, “bastards trying to damage us”. They thought democracy meant they had a legitimate choice.
Second, if
one examines ‘planned’ cuts to the British armed forces under the forthcoming
National Security Capability Review that National Security Adviser Mark Sedwill
is conducting, much of the axe will (again) fall on those very high-end
expeditionary forces needed to defend allies in an emergency, such as the Royal
Marines. Given the cuts it is hard to
escape the impression that Britain is retreating behind its nuclear
deterrent. After all, Britain is a
nuclear island power.
Third, will Britain’s
expeditionary spirit survive Brexit and Trump? In an email exchange this week
with a very close friend, who happens also to be a former US Ambassador to
NATO, he warned me to get used to the end of the ‘special relationship’ with
the Americans and recognise that henceforth London can expect no more than a “transactional
relationship” with Washington. By way of return, Washington had better get used to the British being 'non-actional'. The only
thing that has been keeping Britain’s expeditionary spirit alive these past
decades is history and the demand by the Americans for British support. If the
Americans don’t give a damn about Britain, and Europeans simply want to damn
Britain, and a significant part of the population does not believe in British military power anyway then beyond the inevitably rhetorical we could be witnessing the beginning
of the end, if not the very end, of British expeditionary internationalism.
On Monday I
will launch the massive GLOBSEC NATO
Adaptation Report at NATO HQ. As a
member of a high-level Steering Committee I am proud of the work we have done
looking to the future of NATO and the many papers that have been produced under
the orb of the project by some of the West’s best strategists. And yet, I cannot but feel a sense of
foreboding, particularly concerning four of the central assumptions that
underpin the Alliance. Firstly, that the
Americans will really remain committed to NATO and the defence of Europe in the
future. Secondly, that Europeans really
will spend enough on defence, and organise sufficiently well, to justify the
American taxpayer continuing to guarantee European security and defence. Thirdly, that NATO and the EU really will
forge an effective partnership that will ensure sound security across the
conflict spectrum. Fourthly, that in spite of Britain’s Brexit humiliation, a
country which remains for the moment a leading economic and military power, will
also remain not only committed to the defence of Europe, but able to play
its full and appropriate role in defending Europe. Much of that role will also rely on a
continuing close strategic relationship between London and Paris. However, as
my well-placed sources tell me, Paris under President Macron is in the vanguard of those EU countries
wanting to punish/damage Britain for Brexit. Pas bon, mes amis!
To conclude,
I remain a ‘Big Picture Remainer’. However, the simple geopolitical truth is it is impossible to separate Brexit from the EU from European defence from NATO. Let’s hope
a Brexit breakthrough is made this December, even though with Germany in such a
political shambles it is hard to see how such a leap forward can take place. If
the current tensions pertain for too long then not only will the EU lose
Britain, but also I fear the US will lose Britain, and possibly even NATO in all but name. In which
case, Britain would become like any other European – talking about defence, investing little in it, and able to do little for it. PESCO?
As for my
country being humiliated, that is certainly how I feel right now. Sadly, as our
Irish friends revealed this week, such humiliation is in
no small part due to the incompetence of the people who lead it, and the profound
divisions between them over Brexit.
Europe must see the Big Picture of Brexit and sort it out quickly, before it becomes any more toxic.
Julian
Lindley-French
