“Hypocrisy is a tribute vice pays to virtue”.
Francois, Duc de la Rochefoucauld
August 23rd. On this day in 1939 Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia signed the Non-Aggression Pact” which not only paved the way for Hitler’s September 1st invasion of Poland but also set the scene for the most climactic event of the twentieth century – the June 22nd, 1941 Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. It was as cold and calculated an exercise in cynicism and hypocrisy as any in Europe’s long and undistinguished history of hypocrisy. The Pact gave time to both Berlin and Moscow in return for Poland’s land. Is something similar about to happen in Ukraine?
There is a phrase
that always raises my concerns: “The official policy is…”. It normally means
there is an unofficial policy which is pretty much the opposite of that stated
in public. That is precisely why last week there was a micro-frenzy when a
senior NATO official appeared to suggest that Ukraine might have to accept the
loss of land to Russia in return for membership of the Alliance. For the record, he did not say that. The official in question is known to me and
he is the consummate professional. The
person chairing the meeting at which he is alleged to have suggested is also
one of my closest friends. The suggestion,
such as it was, took place as part of a two-hour panel discussion as one of
many scenarios that might transpire given the nature, scope, and levels of
support for Ukraine. What the reaction
did reveal is how many governments are indeed thinking along those lines.
There are certain
realities that Ukraine and its Western partners must now confront. As I suggested in May, and despite the heroic
efforts of Ukrainian forces, the Ukrainian counter-offensive is stalling because
it never had the necessary military weight to break the Russian land bridge in
eastern and southern Ukraine, let alone re-take Crimea. At the forthcoming meeting of NATO defence ministers
in October it will also become apparent that the Allies have already given 90%
of what they are going to give Ukraine, whether it is delivered as promised or
not. As the Rasputitsa or General Mud begins to impose itself the war will become
a stalemate. The question will then
become what the Alliance and its fellow travellers can do for Ukraine come the
spring and the new campaign season. A
season, I might add, that will coincide with NATO’s 75th anniversary
celebrations in Washington.
The stalemate
is about more than two exhausted armies stuck in the Ukrainian mud. The Russo-Ukraine War is also geopolitical
Rasputitsa. China is determined that Russia
will not lose and is supplying Moscow directly with helicopters and other vital
materiel, and indirectly using North Korea as a conduit for other materiel. Today, a “Crimea Summit” is taking place in Kyiv
with President Zelensky talking about preparations for re-taking Crimea. However, the West, for all its verbal and
actual support of Ukraine, has not and is not doing enough to ensure Ukraine
has any chance of reclaiming its pre-2014 borders, let alone its pre-1991 borders.
The news that the Danish and Dutch will send ‘dozens’ of F-16s to Ukraine with
American approval is to be welcomed, but it will not be a war game-changer.
Worse, there are
countries inside the Alliance, with Belgium and Italy to the fore, who are
suggesting that the war has proven Russia to be a paper tiger and that there is
little urgency to fulfil the goals set out in the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept. Any
strategy pause, for that is what this stalemate will amount to, will thus give
Russia the time and space it needs to learn the lessons of its own incompetence
and rebuild its armed forces, whatever the economic consequences. That is
precisely what former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev meant when in May he suggested
the war could last for decades.
There are several
peace initiatives/peace feelers underway, most notably that being proposed by
the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
What strikes me about all these peace initiatives is how very European
they are. The history of European peace treaties are traditionally built on a
celebrated lack of principle by which the aggressor is partially rewarded for
its aggression in return for the aggressed being partially compensated. Even the Congress of Vienna and the treatment
of defeated Nazi Germany by the Western Allies fitted that pattern. The only ‘peace’ treaty that did not was the
1919 Treaty of Versailles and that simply created the conditions for World War
Two.
Therefore, the
governments saying that, “The official policy is…” are looking at alternatives.
This is because Ukraine’s backers are not going to step up further which means
that when they say it is up to Ukraine to decide when the war ends, it isn’t. At some
point there will be a ceasefire, that will turn into some form of typically
European ‘peace’ by which Russia gets to hold on to some of the Ukrainian land
it has conquered in return for what is left of Ukraine being offered NATO membership.
And, if Ukraine
does not get NATO membership? It will be conquered peace by peace. It is as clear as mud!
Julian
Lindley-French
Addenda
1. My sources are impeccable and extremely well-placed. However, after I posted this piece a very senior Italian official said Italy was absolutely not retreating from its commitments to the goals set out in the NATO Strategic Concept 2022.
2. The assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin yesterday tells one everything one needs to know about the Russia and its dangerous elite. It also explains why Ukraine is fighting for its life and all and any democrat must support it.
