Naples, Italy. 4
April. Christine de Pizan in her 1412
masterpiece “The Book of Deeds of Arms and Chivalry” wrote “What will the wise
prince…do when…he must undertake wars and fight battles? First of all, he will
consider how much strength he has or can obtain, how many men are available and
how much money. For unless he is well
supplied with these two basic elements, it is folly to wage war, for they are
necessary to have above all else, especially money”.
War is coming, big war.
Not here, not now but some time, some place this century it is coming. The rapid shift in the military balance of
power away from the democracies, arms races, climate change and the coming
dislocation of societies, the dangerous proliferation of dangerous
technologies, demographic pressures, competition for energy, food and water and
the hollowing out of states. All
the necessary ingredients for big war exist driven daily by the growing systemic frictions apparent in the world.
As I write this blog the
sun is making its lazy way across the Bay of Naples. The southern Italian sun is in no hurry and takes
its time to appreciate the better things in life. I contemplate a voluptuous glass of
Campania as the old castle of Naples sits to my immediate left on the Borgo
Marinello. To my far left broken
Vesuvius lies asleep the Ad 79 destruction of Pompeii and Herculaneum but the
ancient musings of Tacitus. In the
distance just visible in the sun-fried haze lies the alluring outline of
Capri. It is a picture of Italian
tranquillity – la dolce vita? Or is it? What I am actually looking
at is the ancient remains of a super-volcano with Vesuvius but a pimple on the
face of super power.
Yesterday, I briefed NATO
commanders on the role of the Alliance post-Afghanistan. My message? If the Alliance and its leaders
do not face up to the enormity of change in the world and the pressures it is
creating NATO too could become a pimple on the face of super power. Russia’s seizure of Ukraine-Crimea is just a
harbinger of things to come in a world in which the West is declining rapidly.
Military power is of
course but one of the many tools the West will need to help manage the coming
ruptures. However, military power will remain a critical tool because for many states
military power remains the reserve currency of influence and the stuff of
prestige. And yet in modern day Europe military power is seen as neither
affordable nor useful, a hangover from somebody else’s age that has no place in
the new Europe.
The essential problem
is as ever political; a lack of vision, an inability or a refusal of Western
leaders and led alike to see the big picture that friction is painting and its possible
consequences. The Russian action in
Ukraine-Crimea is but one of the symptoms of an international system under ever
growing pressure – a Vesuvius that has begun to smoke and rumble. Russia took Crimea because it could.
NATO is the world’s big security, big defence
alliance, a credible deterrent against extreme behaviour by extremists and extreme
states in extremis. NATO is insurance. However, the Alliance desperately
needs a root and branch reassessment of its role in twenty-first century peace.
Only thereafter could a proper
assessment be made of what must be done; the balance to be struck between
civilian and military tools, the type of military forces that will be needed and
at what level. That will take political courage and strategic vision in our leaders that is not immediately apparent.
The Alliance must be transformed into a new strategic hub that sits at the very pivot of civilian and
military security and defence. Not just in and around Europe but a NATO that
also sets a global industry standard for true strategic partnership the world
over. However, for such a NATO to emerge
the most profound of mind-set changes is needed at the political and military levels. Indeed, the challenge now is not to do the
past better but to do the future properly.
Strategy can no longer be sacrificed at the altar of expedient politics
– the West’s great curse.
Russia is not going to
invade the rest of Europe, although the jury is still out on eastern
Ukraine. However, what Russia has done
is to end the comforting fantasy that conflicts can always be solved by dialogue alone. Moscow has reminded Europe in particular that
it no longer defines what former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates called
the “rule of the road”. This is not just about Europe. Sitting over the
far horizon China is watching. How the
West responds to this crisis will decide whether China becomes a stakeholder in
the current system or a revisionist power.
That is what is at stake.
Something very nasty is happening and it will be coming to a place near you sometime. Like the doomed of Tacitus if we continue along the road of strategic pretence will we one day find ourselves with nowhere to run. We need a legitimately strong NATO to stop it!
Another glass of
Campania please.
Julian Lindley-French
