Alphen,
Netherlands. 19 February. One of David Cameron’s
many failings is his total lack of strategic understanding and his tendency to
see all and every big issue purely in terms of short-term domestic politicking. He is at it again. The NATO Summit in Wales on 4-5 September at
Celtic Manor Golf Club will be one of the most important such gatherings of the
past decade. In December 2014 NATO will
end major combat operations in Afghanistan.
It is time to properly consider the strategic future of the
Alliance. Given that context one would
think that London in general and David Cameron in particular would be gripped
by the need to establish a summit agenda early.
Not a bit of it. For Cameron the Summit
is not about NATO’s strategic future. It
is about the Scottish vote in the September 18 independence referendum and
women’s votes in the 2015 General Election.
Over the
past fortnight three very senior insider sources have told me the same thing. London has not even begun to think about
either an agenda or desired outcomes for the summit. Indeed, the only idea floated at the very
highest level of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office is a summit statement on UN
Security Council Resolution 1325 on women, peace and security. Yawn!
Do not get
me wrong, UN Security Council Resolution 1325 is important but this NATO nonsense
is all too indicative of the obsessive political correctness which is destroying
Britain as a serious power. The symbolic
choice of ‘Celtic’ Manor is also simply too gauche for words. Indeed, by placing 1325 and matters Celtic front
and centre it is clear that all Cameron wants from the Summit is a photo-op
which somehow implies a big leader of a big Britain on a big international
stage. Nothing could be further from the
truth.
In my
latest book “Little Britain? Twenty-First
Century Strategy for a Middling European Power” (www.amazon.com) one of my arguments is that
too often British leaders routinely confuse politics with
strategy. The Wales Summit is a classic
example. Wales should be the NATO Reinvigoration
Summit. There are four critical outcomes the British should
be seeking in Wales.
First, the
failing 2010 NATO Strategic Concept must be reinvigorated. To that end the Alliance needs to undertake a
proper scan of the changing strategic horizon.
NATO is a political-military alliance built on political realism. Its job is to respond to the world as it is
and in the worst case what the world could become, not as Alliance leaders
would like it to be. Strategy needs big thinking and political courage from big
leaders and now is the moment.
Second, a new
transatlantic security contract must be established reflective of the many
challenges the Alliance will face as the US pivots to Asia-Pacific and
Europeans are forced to take on ever more responsibility for Europe’s rough
neighbourhood.
Third, NATO’s
collective defence must be brought into the twenty-first century. Alliance missile defence, cyber-defence and
the modernisation of NATO’s conventional and nuclear deterrent must be anchored
in a reinvigorated Article 5.
Fourth, a new
Alliance force concept is needed to underpin NATO defence planning firmly
established on lessons from over a decade of operations. This would include an Operational Capability Concept and reinforce the
idea of clusters of Alliance nations modernising their deployable forces
together built on lessons-learned and a well-established programme of
exercising, training and, above all, experimentation.
NATO is
today far from achieving any of these goals.
Indeed, my sources tell me that money is being actively diverted away
from the vital Connected Forces Initiative to fund the rapidly-inflating €1
billion cost of NATO’s bloated new Brussels headquarters. And, far from leading the charge towards
strategy and efficiency the British are as usual being penny wise and pound
foolish by reducing all and everything to an issue of short-term cost.
The only
other thing that will happen at the Summit will be that NATO leaders will
declare ritualistic ‘success’ in Afghanistan.
They will highlight the usual nonsense about the number of girls now
attending schools compared with 2001 and the headline numbers of the Afghan
National Security Forces. They will
ignore the huge gulf between the strategic ambition of 2001 to ensure
Afghanistan is no longer a threat to its own peoples or anybody else and the
2014 reality.
Naturally,
no summit could solve all of these issues but with a modicum of British vision
and a tad of British leadership the Wales Summit could help set the Alliance
finally and firmly on the road to twenty-first century relevance. Instead, London’s strategic myopia and
endemic short-termism will ensure that the Wales Summit is backward and inward
looking.
As a NATO taxpayer
I really wonder why bother given the cost of this jamboree. At least Alliance leaders can play a round of
golf if they have nothing else worth discussing.
NATO: Get a
(strategic) grip, Cameron!
Julian
Lindley-French
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