“When a man says he agrees
to something in principle, it means he has not the slightest intention of carrying
it out”.
Otto von Bismarck on
David Cameron
Alphen, Netherlands. 11 January. Europe
is at the epicentre of a world on the cusp of massive and dangerous structural and
strategic change. The EU is in deep crisis and in desperate need of real,
structural reform. Over the next decade Europe could lose up to 30% of its
current slice of world trade. Power, influence and wealth is fast moving away
from Europe. Ageing populations, over-regulation, incompetent governance, a
lack of competitiveness, obsolete and weak armed forces, a crisis of democratic
legitimacy, the retreat from political realism into fantasy idealism, and a profound
split over the very idea of ‘Europe’ between those in the Eurozone and those without
have all been laid bare by both the Eurozone and immigration crises. And then
there is little David Cameron and his paltry little list of meaningless Brexit ‘non-
reforms’. Yesterday in an interview he gave to the BBC the tragic irony of the
entire Brexit kerfuffle was revealed. Brexit will not make a scrap of difference
to Britain’s place in the EU, nor indeed help Europeans realise a reformed EU. Here
is why.
First, Cameron is being
completely disingenuous. Indeed, even before he has completed his renegotiation
of Britain’s membership of the EU Cameron is already campaigning to keep
Britain in. This is because there is no substantive re-negotiation. Rather,
like the Grand Old Duke of York. Cameron is leading Britain up a hill to
nowhere and once he has declared ‘victory’ he will lead Britain down again. In other
words the entire process is a political fraud, and not all all untypical of
this most consummate of political gamblers.
Second, Brexit has become a
dangerous distraction. Europe is facing very dangerous challenges from security
catastrophes to its south and an aggressive Russia to its east, with
uncontrolled immigration allowing criminals and terrorists to enter Europe
effectively unhindered. And yet Cameron is helping to destroy the very
strategic unity of effort and purpose which is vital to ensuring a cohesive European
response.
Third, the EU will change with or
without Britain. The most bizarre aspect of the entire Brexit fiasco is that in
fact the EU is in any case about to undertake a massive reform process that will
fundamentally change the relationship between those in the Eurozone and those
not. In his September 2015 State of the Union speech European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker laid out plans for a 2017 White Paper on ever
closer union. Specifically, the White Paper will call on the 19 Eurozone
members to achieve full political and economic union by 2025. In other words,
2025 will see the creation of some form of European super-state in all but, but
quite probably with, a name. Those states that reject ever closer union will
become ‘Associate Members’ and thus join the likes of Norway and Switzerland in
a new grouping on the margins of Europe.
Fifth, even if Britain leaves the
EU it will still end up in the same place. If Britain votes to stay in the EU
Britain will end up as an Associate Member – i.e. with full access to the
Single Market but not at the power core of a new German-centric ‘federal Europe’.
If Britain votes to leave the EU Britain will end up as an Associate Member –
i.e. with full access to the Single Market because Britain is too important a
trading partner to Germany for Berlin to countenance restricted access to the
British market.
David Cameron? What struck me
listening to Cameron on the BBC yesterday is what a little man he is in a very
big world. Sadly, a little man leading a big country in an even bigger world
renders the country he leads little. That is Britain’s contemporary tragedy.
Rather, Cameron seems to treat politics like some form of upper class parlour
game, surrounding himself with a ‘chumocracy’ of old Etonians and assorted
hangers-on, and more intent on dodging political bullets most of which he has himself
fired, than leading a great country.
David Cameron say he wants
Britain to stay in a reformed EU, and yet his ‘negotiations’ are really about
keeping Britain in an unreformed EU. Yesterday on the BBC Cameron demonstrated yet
again both his lack of real influence in Europe, and by extension Britain’s.
Worse, Cameron has reduced Brexit to a dangerous nonsense at a time when
Europeans should be pulling together to face what is fast becoming a very
dangerous world, that in turn is making Europe an ever more dangerous place.
Julian Lindley-French
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